He has not asked for Volodymyr Zelensky's resignation. No, all he is asking for are talks to find a resolution to the conflict. What he is saying to the world is simple: he wants a solution that is acceptable to all sides and thus will hold.
The Chinese support him and their foreign minister, Wang Yi, is quoted as saying the "friendship between Chinese and Russian peoples is rock solid." He portrayed the bilateral relationship as separate from its relations with other countries, adding pointedly that China was determined to keep its ties to Russia "free from interference or discord sown by other parties." All of which is important because China is also a customer for Russian fossil fuels.
The oft-quoted Clausewitz aphorism, "War is the continuation of policy with other means," continues to hold in Ukraine. Russia will not cease its support of the Russians in Ukraine's east, and it has strengthened its hand by taking most of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov adjacent to the Black Sea. Comparable to Odessa, it is a major Ukraine port for exporting grain.
Mr. Zelensky's desires to join the West are now muted if not inviable. In an interview with Russian journalists, he said his government is ready to discuss a neutral status for Ukraine as part of a peace deal. Abandoned as he has been by Europe and the US, who though ready to fan the fire and provide supplies, had no stomach for a dangerous conflict with Russia that had the potential of the unthinkable. Mr. Zelensky it seems is back to earth.
He is not winning friends in Asia either given the disastrous rise in fuel and commodity prices. Importing nations like Japan and South Korea are likely to suffer the most. Following on the heels of the covid crisis, it is a one-two punch. Crude oil prices for example were around $75 a barrel at year-end but are now skirting $120 for Brent crude.
Outlines of a Ukraine agreement are also on the horizon. Ukraine agrees to a neutral status and also renounces any ambitions of joining the EU or NATO. That is for starters...
It is difficult to imagine Russia not pressing home its advantage, and demanding recognition of its Crimea takeover plus independence for the newly declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine. These might in the future also decide to join the Russian Federation.
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