Rob Kall
OpEdNews.Com
Using the same "technology that enabled OpEdNews.com to predict within less than one percent, what Howard Dean would Win the MoveOn.org Primary, we see a close race between Dean and Gephart, with the other 7 candidates far behind.
When Moveon.org ran it's on-line internet democratic presidential primary, OpEdNews.com predicted that Dean would win, and that he would not get the 50% he'd need to earn the funding support of moveon.org. The prediction technology OpEdNews.com developed to make this prediction actually predicted the percentage Dean won by within less than one percentage point.
Today, that same technology has shown that the primary appears to be becoming a two man race between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, who moved from sixth to second place.
More important, Dean, who was running far ahead of the crowd of eight other contenders, is getting serious competition from Gephart, whose website, today, reached more people on the internet per million than Dean. Over all, Dean is still far in the lead, but Gephart's strong recent showing may indicate that his growing support among unions may be paying off on the internet too. Both Dean and Gephardt are far ahead of the next candidate, Kerry, who has one fifth the internet reach of the top two. Dennis Kucinich, generally considered by many pundits as a candidate with no serious chance of winning has double the reach of three candidates who ARE considered to be serious contenders.
Dean still has a solid long term lead over Gephardt, and daily spikes in ratings are not uncommon. But the signs do look strong that this race is settling into a race between Dean and Gephardt, with Kerry and Kucinich still in the same stretch and the other five falling further behind. The one exception is late starter Bob Graham, who, while behind, is the only one of the five laggers who has actually gained ground since the MoveOn.org Primary.
The technology used to make these analyses are based on the web activity of hundreds of thousands of web users, unlike most political polls which are based on hundreds of people. Still, the technology is new and minimally tested, and only represents the interests of people who are regular web surfers.
AVERAGE REACH PER MILLION
Candidate daily weekly 3 month Howard Dean 275 325 158 Dick Gephardt 290 190 47 John Kerry 60 62 38 Dennis Kucinich 35 37.5 31 JoeLieberman 15 21.5 11.5 Jonathan Edwards15 20.5 15.5 Bob Graham 15 18 8.9 Carol Mosely Brain 15 11.5 4.45 Al Sharpton N/A 2.5 3.15 Wesley Clark ? Hillary Clinton ?
