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OpEdNews Op Eds    H3'ed 3/22/13

Hubbert 's Peak, The Economy, and War for Oil

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According to Greg Muttitt in his book, Fuel on the Fire, Oil and Politics in Occupied Iraq, http://www.fuelonthefire.com/, Bush's first Treasury Secretary, Paul O'Neill, who was fired in late 2002 after disagreeing with Bush on Iraq, was one of the first insiders to detail the administration's Iraqi oil obsession, tracking it back to just after Bush's inauguration as his advisers were even then planning how to divide up Iraq's oil wealth.

O'Neill also told author Ron Suskind (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-592330.html) that Bush's first National Security Council meeting just days into his presidency included a discussion of invading Iraq and that the message from Bush was "find a way to do this."

Subsequent disclosures have corroborated O'Neill's account about the importance of oil in Bush's calculation. "According to some documents from Vice President Cheney's March 2001 Energy Task Force included a map of Iraqi oil fields, pipelines, refineries, terminals, and potential areas for exploration. There also was a Pentagon chart titled "Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts," and one chart detailing Iraqi oil and gas projects." Judicial Watch, a conservative legal group, obtained task force-related Commerce Department papers corroborated this assertion (click here).

During "Mission Accomplished" in 2003, then Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz unflappably responded to a question about why Bush attacked Iraq, but not North Korea, by saying "Look, the primarily difference -- to put it a little too simply -- between North Korea and Iraq is that we had virtually no economic options with Iraq because the country floats on a sea of oil." (click here)

John McCain said in May of 2008, "My friends, I will have an energy policy which will eliminate our dependence on oil from Middle East that will then prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East."**

McCain's utterances have been interpreted to mean that his Middle East policy, if he had become President, would have nothing to do with freeing oppressed people, or defending ourselves against future attacks, or about weapons of mass destruction, or protecting Israel. It's about gaining control of foreign oil.

Because it is only a matter of time before there is a serious oil-depletion crisis. A crash of some magnitude appears inevitable.  It is growing more and more likely that there will be wars for the last oil. "The American oil wars are being launched out of weakness, not strength. The American economy is teetering and without control of the remaining oil; it will collapse. There will be massive chaos in any case, when only enough oil remains for the American elite and whomever they choose to share it with." Joe Lauria, *The Coming War with Iran: It's About the Oil, Stupid*.

The bursting housing bubble, and Wall Street/big bank/big insurance meltdown, are just a preview of what the economic implications of peak oil, liquid-fuel scarcity, and the failure of a mythical "technological" solution, will have on the economy of the US and the developed world.

Whether or not we go to war for oil in the foreseeable future, there is little doubt that a Western consumer society on a global scale is unsupportable and new approaches to living within our means have to be considered.

"To adapt to a profoundly different post carbon world, we must begin now to make radical changes to our attitudes, behaviors and expectations. The economy of the future will necessarily be steady-state not requiring constant growth. It will be based on the use of renewable resources harvested at a rate slower than that of natural replenishment; and on the use of non-renewable resources at declining rates, with metals and minerals recycled and re-used wherever possible. Human population will have to achieve a level that can be support by resources used this way, and that level is likely to be significantly lower than the current one. "The End of Growth," Richard Heinberg (click here).  

Here we are almost 60 years after Hubbert's memo, and people are still arguing about Peak Oil. The really disturbing part in all of this is how the public remains content living in denial of the implications of Peak Oil on the economy, national security, and the environment.  Peak Oil is still dismissed as "theory" and media headlines and fossil-fuel company "data" are used to "prove" that we still have plenty of barrels of crude oil left to tap on this planet.

"On that day in 1956 when Hubbert took to the podium in San Antonio, oil was cheap for us to pump and easy to get. Now it is neither." Keith Kohl, *Past Peak Oil*.

An OPED by Andrew J. Willner. Mr. Willner has been a sustainability consultant and has written about "peak everything," the economy, environment, and equity. His website/Blog is http://www.andrewwillner.com -- Andrew Willner Sustainability Solutions

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*"Spirit of place symbolizes the living ecological relationship between a particular location and the persons who have derived from it and added to it the various aspects of their humanness. The reason we are now desecrating nature is not because we use it to our ends, but because we commonly manipulate it without respect for the spirit of place." ~ Rene Dubos*

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Andrew Willner has been a city planner, furniture designer, sculptor, boat builder, environmentalist, Permaculturist, Transition advocate, story teller, blogger, and photographer. He was Executive Director and Baykeeper at NY/NJ Baykeeper (more...)
 
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