Meanwhile, back in the U.S., land of risk-takers and winners, our Washington beltway policymakers have become inured to the risks this sort of compulsive gambling entails. They continue to throw money and men on the table, no matter the odds in the unkindest of houses (and, whatever else they've been, Iraq and Afghanistan certainly haven't been kind to American agendas).
Think about it. In the next year or two, no matter how well or how poorly we play our cards in Afghanistan, it doesn't appear that we'll seriously consider folding and walking away.
Take, for example, our latest do-or-die offensive about to be launched in Kandahar, the country's second largest city, and environs. If all goes well this summer and the U.S. military wins a few hands in the Kandahar region, Washington's addictive mentality will doubtless take this as evidence that the tide has turned, our luck has changed. In short, we'll double down.
And if our offensive goes poorly? Undoubtedly, Washington will take this as evidence that we had a chance, but didn't ante-up enough chips or simply hit a stretch of bad luck. Then, like compulsive gamblers everywhere, they'll insist on playing a few more hands, but this time just a little more smartly. In short, they'll double down.
So, if they win, it's "we're on a roll"; if they lose, it's "next hand, baby, next hand." And what about President Obama's pledge to walk away from the Afghan poker table beginning in 2011? Fuggeddaboudit.
Knowing When to Fold'em
War, as any sane person knows, is a life-or-death gamble, usually at long odds -- and let's face it, we've been gambling at the longest odds for years now. It was never a smart move to invade either Afghanistan or Iraq, and then try to plant pseudo-democracies in soil that was unlikely to sustain them. In Afghanistan, it wasn't smart to squeeze local card sharks and tough guys even as they squeezed us, whether by stealing outright or forcing us to pay protection money in a rigged game. It wasn't smart to woo hearts and minds while busting heads and bodies ("aggressive interrogation") and plugging mid-level thugs ("targeted assassinations") with missiles and slugs, all the while knocking off far too many civilian noncombatants as we went.
Under the pressure of so many losing hands, our tactics in Afghanistan have become increasingly erratic, swinging from idealistic plans for nation-building to pragmatic "clear-and-hold" counterinsurgency, from upbraiding Afghan leaders to uplifting them. Like a flustered gambler, we've lost all sense of the cards staring coldly back at us.
Now, let's return to our British partner, sweating it out at the table. Low on chips and holding bad cards, he'd like nothing more than to swallow his pride and get out of Dodge. He looks for a nod from us, some recognition that walking away with our shirts still on our backs is better than losing it all.
Yet his Washington partner stubbornly plays on, compelled to double down yet again in spite of the odds.
Tell me: Is the fight truly worth it? Is Afghanistan really the place for us to go "all-in," whatever the cost to our military, our economy, even our way of life?
Only a compulsive gambler would answer yes.
William Astore (wjastore@gmail.com) is a TomDispatch regular. A retired lieutenant colonel (USAF), he taught at the USAF Academy and the Naval Postgraduate School and currently teaches History at the Pennsylvania College of Technology.
Copyright 2010 William J. Astore
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