voting in your network is one way to get other network members to the voting booth. One can increase voter participation by announcing plans to vote. One must do this in a community that is predisposed to your candidate.
- Researchers investigated the effect of a single person's decision to vote. The person's influence spread throughout their local cluster. People were 15 percent more likely to vote if one of their political discussants made clear their intentions to vote.
- Within the research population, a citizen would positively affect the turnout decision of up to four other people. The researchers called this a "turnout cascade". In addition, the increased turnout was found to favor the candidate of the initiator. Human clusters tend to contain similar preferences for candidates and issues, thus an increase in participation was equivalent to an increase in between two and three votes for the candidate.
- Building connections to undecided voters and those who support your view are key battlegrounds in elections.
- Unless they are public figures, strangers do not influence. Instead of having strangers call
voters, or knock on doors, the campaign should find well-connected supporters and have them go out into their clusters [workplaces, places of worship, neighborhoods, sports leagues, etc.] building support for the candidate. Bringing in masses of campaign workers, who are strangers, to contact local voters may cause more harm than good.
- This may have been part of the cause in the collapse of the 2004 Dean campaign in Iowa. The Dean campaign had a strategy called the Dean Storm - they would fly in people from across the country who they had recruited on the Internet. These outsiders would then go out into the public to persuade caucus participants.
- The Kerry campaign had a more successful strategy, and an apparently better understanding of social networks. The Kerry campaign connected to local politicians who had already build local influence networks over the years. The Kerry people had friends, neighbors, and co-workers influencing each other, and a surprising victory.
The preceding paragraphs come from Chapter Nine of book called Extreme Democracy, by Valdis Krebs. The chapter is appropriately titled, "It's the conversations, stupid! The link between social interaction and political choice." This chapter is well worth reading, or at least skimming (it gets gnarly in some places, but you'll easily get the main ideas): http://www.extremedemocracy.com/chapters/Chapter%20Nine-Krebs.pdf
And here's a link to a bio of Valdis Krebs, which speaks for itself: http://www.orgnet.com/VKbio.html
May we now combine the preceding with a dose of common sense (apologies to any scientists reading this). What is the greatest factor that determines whether a high-schooler goes to college? What's the greatest factor determining whether a teenager will smoke or get into drugs? Have sex early? Work on computers? Get a job? C'mon, you were a teenager--don't pretend you don't know! It's the network of friends, which according to the rather amazing work of Mr. Krebs, is the very same factor weighing on whether people will vote, and often who they'll vote for.
I trust that you mouse clickers are beginning to see light here. We need to get to that group who might not vote for one reason or another, even though they are predisposed in the proper political direction. Consider the effect of the following email on your own network of friends, who you're fairly certain will vote correctly, if they actually get out to vote (or its effect on a friend who may somehow be undecided):
"Hey old friend, or new... just a gentle reminder to suggest setting aside some time for the upcoming election. I confess I've missed a few elections myself, for being preoccupied or unable to imagine what difference my vote would make. But I promise you I will get out for this one! I consider my vote to be my one silver bullet to let our leaders know how I think and feel. Many elections have hinged on a small number of votes, even one vote, as I'm sure you know. Someone recently pointed out that "democracy is not a spectator sport." How very true! So, yes I promise you I'll get out and vote in the upcoming election, for your sake, my sake, and that of humankind.
I was about to end by saying, "I hope all is well," but it's because I know the answer that I'm emailing my friends in the first place. Last but not least, it would surely help our cause if you'd pass this email on to others, or do an email of your own that helps gets those silver bullets flying!
P.S. Take a half hour or so and email something like the above to anyone you consider in your network. It may sound like preaching to the choir, but given what appears to be solid research, your clicking away just might tip the scales. Given Krebs' advice, I don't recommend emailing any of your less friendly contacts, unless you're a masochist who enjoys getting flamed (yes, I've been there, too).
Now if you can't do THAT much, I do recommend you heed the title of this article!
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