Second, the judicial crisis (March-July 2007) has greatly undermined the credibility of the Musharraf government. It is interpreted among the non-official political circles as a crude attempt by the government to subdue the Supreme Court that was showing the signs of institutional autonomy that threatened the centrality of the presidency to the political process. It provided an opportunity to the lawyers and some societal groups to take to the political stage and demonstrate their political clout. The lawyers and societal groups are expected to function as an autonomous political player and build pressure on the government.
Third, the Red Mosque episode exposed the dilemmas of the government in coping with the threats from Islamic hard liners. This was viewed as symptomatic of the government's indecision in dealing with such elements mainly due to the presence of their sympathisers in the ruling party and official circles.
The use of force by the government against the inmates caused a clear breach between the militant elements and the government. These militant elements were joined by Islamic parties, especially the Muttahida Majlis-e Amal (MMA) and the federation of the boards of Islamic seminaries, who functioned as the political front for militant Islamic groups.
The government will find it difficult to cope with the threat of Islamic militancy at a time when it is engaged in combat of another type with established political parties and groups. How many fronts can the government pursue simultaneously? If internal political conditions do not stabilise, the militants will get more space to carry out their activities. The challenge of extremism is more formidable because there is still scope for accommodation with the political circles provided the government gives up its policy of treating the political opposition condescendingly.
The fourth major challenge is caused by the failure of the government to transfer the rewards of economic development to the ordinary people. The much-propagated economic development has bypassed the ordinary people who are being hit hard by hiked prices of food and other essential items. Reports of officials and government insiders being involved in the sugar and wheat crises have accentuated anti-government sentiments.
Fifth, politically active circles have been in a state of mobilisation for the last several months mainly due to the chief justice crisis, the red mosque issue and the presidential elections. This mobilisation is going to increase as the opposition starts its campaign for the general elections.
As all major political parties and societal groups with the exception of the ruling party share anti-Musharraf sentiments in varying degrees, election campaigns are likely to be dominated by one issue: removal of Musharraf from power. A single-issue campaign is a troubling sign both for Musharraf's political future and the prospects of democracy in Pakistan.
The troubled political situation in Pakistan and the possibility of further deterioration call for an out-of-the-box approach on the part of Musharraf. He needs to move quickly on three fronts: step-back from an aggressive role as the president and let the prime minister and the parliament play their constitutional roles; hold absolutely fair and free general elections to know the political worth of each political party and work towards political accommodation. How Musharraf addresses these issues will shape his political future.
Meanwhile, according to a report, Taliban militants claimed to have kidnapped 28 paramilitary soldiers, as one army jawan died and many others were injured when a military convoy was ambushed in North Waziristan , officials said.
Local Taliban spokesman Ahmedullah Ahmed said that 28 paramilitary soldiers were kidnapped in the last 36 hours from the Speenwam area near Mir Ali town.
"We have kidnapped 28 Frontier Corps (FC) soldiers from different checkposts in Speenwam near Mir Ali during the last 36 hours," he informed by phone from an undisclosed location.
He did not say whether the kidnapped soldiers had put up any resistance before being kidnapped, as previous reports have alleged that soldiers have surrendered without resistance.
No kidnappings: Military spokesman Maj-Gen Waheed Arshad termed the Taliban spokesman's claim as "wrong" and said no FC jawan had been captured. He, however, confirmed the militants' ambush on the army convoy.
One dead, 18 injured: Meanwhile, the ambush on the military convoy was staged 10 kilometres west of Miranshah with the attack "bearing the hallmark of Al Qaeda" - killing one soldier and injuring 18 others, a tribal elder said.
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