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“The forces fueling hatred of the U.S. and fueling al-Qa’ida recruiting are not being addressed...the underlying causes that drive terrorists will persist.”And we noted that that CIA report cited a 2002 Gallup poll of almost 10,000 Muslims in nine countries in which respondents described the United States as “ruthless, aggressive, conceited, arrogant, easily provoked and biased.” We hoped against hope that someone could break through the coterie around President George W. Bush and give him a chance to hear why “they hate us.” Someone, for example, from the U.S. Defense Science Board, a panel established to provide independent advice to the secretary of defense, which on Sept. 23, 2004 completed on an unclassified study on “Strategic Communication.” With little risk to their day-jobs, that distinguished board directly contradicted the line taken by the president:
“Muslims do not ‘hate our freedom,' but rather, they hate our policies. The overwhelming majority voice their objections to what they see as one-sided support in favor of Israel and against Palestinian rights, and the longstanding, even increasing support for what Muslims collectively see as tyrannies, most notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, and the Gulf States. Thus, when American public diplomacy talks about bringing democracy to Islamic societies, this is seen as no more than self-serving hypocrisy...”
It is hard to guess whether such straight talk might make a dent in presidential wood. The pity is that the palace guard around him headed by centurion-in-chief Cheney can, and does, keep such information from getting through. Even if the president were to read the New York Times, as many of us still do, he would have had to wait two months for the “paper of record” to put this story on the record and, even then, he would have been shortchanged.
NIE Ducks Key Issues
The latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) titled “The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland,” is a disappointment, at least judging from its declassified Key Judgments that were made public on July 17. The judgments caused a stir by describing a “persistent and evolving terrorist threat” and pointing out that al-Qa’ida has secured safe haven in the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
And then came the “mushroom-cloud” warning:
“al-Qa’ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability.”
Now that I’ve got your attention, I must tell you there is in the Key Judgments absolutely no hint as to how likely it might be that al-Qa’ida will be able to acquire such material. The message seems to be simply: Be afraid. Let us “assess” and “judge,” but don’t ask us about sources or provenance.
The Unaddressed Why of It All
Worse still, the Key Judgments throw no light at all on why al-Qa’ida or other terrorist groups would want to use such weapons against the U.S. With this key element missing, the paper reads like a long police bulletin: Be alert; heightened threat; terrorists want to do bad things to us. We don’t know if they can; but “we assess” they will try to do very bad things...and don’t ask us why. They’re evildoers; is that not enough for you?
The estimate bears the earmarks of having been drafted originally by law enforcement agencies like the Department of Homeland Security, whose portfolio include terrorist threats to the U.S., and the FBI. There are pitfalls here. There is a tendency to inflate the threat, when one has a parochial interest in building up one’s capacity to deal with it
In the past, the Pentagon would routinely magnify external threats by writing what we disdainfully called “budgetary intelligence” to justify burgeoning budgets. There is more than a whiff of that in the Key Judgments. The National Intelligence Council, which has purview over NIEs, is supposed to monitor this. But there is no sign in the Key Judgments that judicious restraint has been applied.
So, even if the president and Cheney wished to know what actually fuels all this terrorism, they would receive little if any help from this estimate.
Help Needed
And since 9/11, the Michael (Heck-of-a-Job-Brownie) Browns have proliferated in the national security apparatus almost as quickly as lapel flag-pins.
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