Autonomists in, nationalists out. Xanana's main post-independence theme of reconciliation has contributed to this re-alignment. This political shift, more than the somewhat associated 'east-west' ethnic divide, reflects the divisions that destroyed the police and damaged the army in 2006.
Former army Major Alfredo Reinado, an escapee wanted for murder, remains at large and a potential embarrassment to the new government. Xanana is widely believed to have backed Reinado's armed rebellion. The UN investigation into the 2006 crisis diplomatically labelled the former President’s connection with Reinado as unwise (“increasing tensions between the President and the army”) but not criminal. Reinado might yet have his say on this matter, if he faces trial. However in view of the failure to arrest and prosecute the high-profile escapee, resolving the ‘Reinado problem’ is now universally seen as Xanana’s responsibility.
Fretilin, the former government leader, has worn its share of blame for the crisis. Its vote fell from 56% in 2001 to 29% in 2007. However Xanana's fall was hardly less dramatic. As a Fretilin-backed independent he gained over 80% in the 2002 Presidential vote. His new political party gained just 24% in the 2007 elections.
The new ‘CNRT' (using the initials of an earlier, genuinely broad coalition) has little by way of policies or party structure. On one view this new CNRT, with refugees from Fretilin, PD and elsewhere, is little more than a political vehicle for Xanana. He certainly has all authority in both the CNRT and the AMP.
After the breakup of the original CNRT, in the name of multi-party elections, Xanana encouraged the formation of the PD. This party became the main opposition and the potential beneficiary of the attempted coup in 2006.
However in 2007 Xanana bypassed the PD, attracting some of their support into his new CNRT. As a result, PD's vote only increased a little over that of 2001 (from 9% to 11%). PD was offered just two ministries in the new government, plus the Presidency of the Parliament for PD leader Fernando ‘Lasama’ de Araújo. Many PD members are dissatisfied with this outcome. Lasama seems to have gained little influence, remaining dependent on Xanana.
In sum, Timor Leste has acquired a weak and disparate government, dominated by a Presidential-style Prime Minister, with few policies. Its vulnerability to external pressures is plain.
What are these pressures? First, the struggle with Australia over energy resources, having reached some form of compromise over royalties in the shared JPDA zone, is likely to move on into issues of gas processing and new explorations.
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
