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Oren believes Israel will use its show of strength in Gaza "as leverage in the Iranian context." Tehran leaders aren't fool enough to buy it.
They're firm in saying any Israeli attack will be met by a comparable response. Iran's military capability is strong enough to back its rhetoric with policy. Israel would be foolish to doubt it.
Gaza is a "practical test," says Oren. Not a word about lawless aggression and war crimes. Instead he says IDF chief General Benny Gantz has a chance to prove his mettle.
Once Gaza operations end, Hamas and other resistance groups will unify more for what's ahead. Hezbollah's Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah won't be silent or refuse to defend Lebanon aggressively if attacked.
All the more reason for "an Iranian operation," says Oren, especially while "Syria is stuck politically and militarily."
Netanyahu is single-minded on two issues: removing its main regional rival, Iran, and maintaining US support. "Should Operation Pillar of Defense attain the limited goals set for it in Gaza, that will be very good." Who cares how many Palestinians die?
What follows could prove dangerous, adds Oren. At the same time, he failed to denounce Netanyahu's lawless aggression.
He also didn't say attacking Iran or other nonbelligerent country is illegal under international law. Failure to explain both constitutes support.
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