What would be desirable would be to have--as both businessmen and local politicians, mayors of the cities and representatives of local city councils, have said, these are, in fact, popular demands for greater autonomy. It would be ideal to have representatives from Kiev come and talk to them about that.
By the way, there was an interesting incident on Sunday, when there was a direct connection on national television with Yulia Tymoshenko, who was in Donetsk and said that she had spoken to the opposition leaders and that it had been a difficult negotiation, but she felt that it was important to actually listen to them and to listen to their grievances. But she is really the only national figure to have done so up until now, except, of course, the representative of the Party of Regions.
This makes the entire discussion one where representatives of the east--but especially and somewhat distinctly, Luhansk and Donetsk--argue that their voices are not yet being heard and they would like to establish a dialogue. To the extent that this is the case, it is inaccurate--and I have to stress this--inaccurate to call them pro-Russian or separatist, because what they are asking for is autonomy--some define that as federalism; some do not--in any case, a greater say in local affairs within the Ukrainian federation.
Clearly there's a sense of identification with Russia, but not necessarily as part of the Russian Federation.
NICOLAI PETRO: It's a bit worrying to me, because at the end of this survey there was a rating of the current political candidates. There are more than 20 of them. Among them, in the eastern regions, which were the base of support for Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions and that led to his victory in the last political election--among the current candidates, only one manages to get over 10 percent, and that's Petro Poroshenko. Now, 10 percent is not a huge number, of course. There are a lot of candidates running.
DAVID SPEEDIE: And, of course, he's proclaimed as the clear frontrunner at this point. Ten percent for a frontrunner is--
NICOLAI PETRO: I think the reason for his lead in the east and the south is probably name recognition, because I don't hear anything particular in his political campaign that appeals to the interests of the east.
But there's another aspect of this that I think is interesting. Only about a third say that they have not already made up their minds. So if you had Poroshenko's total and say that all of the people who haven't made up their minds could be added into that, you still have less than half voting, finding a candidate that they can vote for. I think one of the real worries that we should be concerned about and that the government in Kiev should be concerned about is the possibility of the east, or certain regions of the east at least, boycotting the elections, simply deciding that it's not worth choosing among this slate of candidates.
DAVID SPEEDIE: You also mentioned the recent meeting of the Valdai Club, the high-level expert discussion group, and also the Russian-German Forum in Berlin. I know you were there. One item of the report that you gave from there really struck one immediately. You say, "Civil society is forming in Eastern Ukraine. This is not to Western Ukraine or the West's liking."
That's a very striking comment. Can you elaborate just a little bit?
NICOLAI PETRO: Yes. One of the participants--and there were mostly German senior officials, former diplomats, and journalists, but also representatives from a number of other countries. Primarily they discussed reports, an analysis that had been prepared by several experts from Ukraine. One of the points that was made was that, as a result of these tensions and the reaction to the change of power, in February, in Kiev, this was immediately denounced in the east, in Kharkiv and other regions, as illegitimate.
Subsequent developments suggested to at least some of the participants that, much as we were seeing in the previous three months an expression of civil society in the western and central regions, the reaction against the takeover power in February was an expression of a similar civic concern and, indeed, the beginnings at least of the emergence of a civil society in the east, but around very different issues, issues of concern to the population there. Specifically, will they be able to retain their cultural identity? Will they be able to preserve their economic ties, which are strong, with Russia?
Throughout this conflict, throughout this debate between the east and the government in Kiev, despite all the things that have happened, and even the loss of Crimea, we see two interesting pieces of data come out of the April poll. One is that if a referendum were held today--even today--only 25 percent of the population in the east and the south would want to join the EU. Forty-seven percent still would prefer to join the Customs Union.
In addition, when asked about what sort of relations Ukraine and Russia should have ideally, only 15 percent say that they should be the same as with any other foreign country; in other words, distant, with border crossings that are carefully regulated. More than 80 percent desire a friendly relationship between Ukraine and Russia, with fully open borders.
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