Given broad Iraqi opposition to the U.S. occupation, Iraqi political factions decided to position themselves as defenders of the nation's sovereignty, not as American puppets. To get any SOFA at all for allowing American troops to remain legally after the end of 2008, Bush was forced to accept a deadline for the U.S. pullout, something that he had long resisted.
Key elements in Maliki's governing coalition, especially the faction loyal to Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, continue to resist any concessions on the U.S. withdrawal date. Thus, the likely outcome in Iraq now appears to be the departure of U.S. forces in December with Washington left with little to show for its eight-year investment.
As for Iraq, it seems doomed to continue as a country plagued by sectarian divisions. The Shiite majority can be expected to firm up ties with neighboring Shiite-ruled Iran; the Sunnis will remain resentful over their reduced status; and the Kurds will insist on their autonomous region in the north.
Whether any form of democracy can survive long amid these tensions -- and after years of horrific violence -- is doubtful. More likely might be a Balkanization of the country into sectarian enclaves or the emergence of another strongman in the mold of Saddam Hussein.
But the American neocons will never admit to failure. From their influential perches on op-ed pages and inside think tanks, these war hawks have reacted to Obama's presidency as a time for delay, preventing any dramatic shift in American policy while consolidating the conventional wisdom about their "victory at last" in Iraq.
The Afghan Debacle
The neocons also are fighting a rearguard action against anti-war Democrats and a few Republicans who favor a substantial drawdown of the 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. The neocons insist on a longer counterinsurgency mission in Afghanistan.
However, even if Obama accedes to the slow withdrawal favored by neocon favorites Gates and Petraeus -- and even if the President agrees to a renegotiation of the final U.S. departure date from Iraq -- the longer troop commitments appear likely to only delay the day of reckoning.
Despite the massive commitment of blood and treasure, the United States will almost surely emerge from the two wars as the perceived loser. Still, any delay could be valuable for the neocons because the postponements will give them more time to shift blame to Obama.
The longer the wars can be stretched out the easier it will be to count on the famous historical amnesia of the American voters and fault Obama for the eventual defeats. It will be Obama who "lost Iraq" and "lost Afghanistan."
That will play into the core Republican theme about Obama's feckless leadership, failing to straighten out the economy and ready to accept U.S. decline around the world. Any suggestion that Bush deserves the blame will be met with the talking point, "there you go again, blaming Bush. When will Obama take responsibility for his own failures?"
The stage will be set for another Republican presidential victory in November 2012 -- and a return by the neocons to the war rooms of the White House and the Pentagon.
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