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Voter sentiment mostly reflects pocket book issues. Given current dire conditions, it's certainly true now. Declining consumer confidence reflects it. So do unemployment and poverty levels.
Economic activity is clearly heading south. In May, incomes dropped 0.2%. They've fallen for two of the past three months. Chicago's PMI plunged from April's 56.2 to 52.7. Consensus expected 56.8. It was the worse read since September 2009. It matched December 2007 when recession conditions began.
PMI components were also abysmal. Order backlogs fell from 56.8 to 46.3. In the past 30 years, only three declines matched May. Other regional manufacturing indexes also showed softness.
Unprecedented low Treasury yields signal trouble. TIPs sunk below 0%. So did German 2-year notes. Its 10-year bunds yield 1.1641%. Inflation adjusted shows negative returns. Ten-year US Treasuries stand at 1.46%. They're also negative when inflation adjusted.
Five months remain until America's election. Hope springs eternal every time. After Obama won in November 2008, Chicago erupted like New Year's eve. Hangover conditions followed. Despair deepened them.
Nothing ahead shows promise. Wrongheaded policies assure it. As 2013 approaches, grim conditions are worsening. Relief is nowhere in sight.
Whichever party wins in November, things won't change. It's hard imagining how much longer suffering millions will tolerate it. Sooner or later they're bound to erupt. It's their only chance.
A Final Comment
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