The ending to little Ralphie's "A Christmas Story" Would be a little different around here this year. You see, the Chinese restaurant that had been located a block from my hovel closed down the other day. It was a large place and had been located there for a decade or more but eating out is a luxury these days. Instead of Merry Christmas, the signs of the season are "going out of business."
I went Christmas shopping the other day, not that I was buying, I just went along. What surprised me was the lack of help, and even more, the lack of customers. We went to a big box electronics retailer, they had one model flat screen television on sale. They had about fifty of the sets stacked against a wall and I wondered how many the store had originally. I saw large supplies of X-Box 360's on display but it didn't appear to be a hot item.
It appears that this will be a bathrobe and sweater Christmas. The economy added only 39,000 jobs in November. The number of unemployed from October to November grew by 276,000 to a total of 15.1 million workers. The number of hours worked remains flat which indicates doing more with fewer workers. No holiday overtime and strangely, the retail trade lost 28,000 workers in November. General merchandise down 14,500, department stores down 8,800 employees while sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores shed 3,600 workers. It sure doesn't look much like Christmas time.
From November 2009 to November 2010 the ranks of the unemployed grew by 430,000. What happened to our green shoots? Where is this recovery that we are promised on nearly a daily basis?
Why are all these people still losing their jobs?
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs: up 390, 000 in thirty days.
On temporary layoff: up 147,000 in thirty days.
Permanent job losers: up 138,000 in thirty days.
!,651 mass layoffs accounted for another 148,059 job losses.
 "Government registered over-the-year increases in mass layoff events and initial claims. Year-to-date initial (unemployment) claims totals through October for government are the highest on record." BLS December 3rd
Still there is some good news, American workers produced more per hour and third quarter productivity is up 2.6 percent! Hourly compensation increased by 1.4 percent, so in terms of real compensation, wages rose at two tenths of one percent! Unit labor costs for employers declined by 1.1 percent.
The numbers are bad and getting worse. The economy is bad and getting worse. The Bureau of Labor Statistics can crow about 39,000 new jobs while ignoring job losses that dwarf gains. They can ignore that the economy adds fifty to seventy thousand new workers per month but they can no longer ignore the cold critical picture coming into focus.
This would be the point where I would normally bash Barack Obama. Obama didn't cause these economic problems but his Republican leaning policies have only made them worse. Obama capitulated on the Bush era tax cuts. I knew that he would, and I suppose, so did most of you who are paying attention. A man whose policy is capitulation will never be idle. Obama traded tax cuts for the rich for extended unemployment benefits for two million American workers. We can bounce the numbers around but the fact is, without this compromise it would be a mean and cold Christmas for millions.
I remember my father telling me about when he was a boy in the thirties. There was a strike that started at Thanksgiving and continued until New years. His dad was the shop steward and my dad was around twelve or thirteen. I still remember how my dad's tone of voice changed when he said, "Guess what I got for Christmas?"
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