from The Hill
I still believe Democrats will keep control of the Congress, for these
reasons:
1. The publication of the book Decision Points by former President George W.
Bush will have a bombshell impact in the closing hours of the campaign. The
publication date is Nov. 9. Here is what will happen:
The book will leak the week before the election. Probably the entire book.
Certainly the most controversial revelations. The saturation media coverage
will be intense. Karl Rove will be everywhere.
Voters will remember: It was a Republican president who initiated the bailout.
It was Republican economics, championed by a Republican Congress, that caused
the recession and created the curse of devastating unemployment. The bad
memories will flow as details of the Bush book unfold in the days before the
election.
I am no apologist for the shortcomings of the Democratic Party, but analyzing
major trends, the most likely outcome is that Democrats retain control of both
houses of Congress.
2. 2010 will not be a national wave election, but a wave election only in the
15-20 states where President Obama's popularity is lowest. This will cost
Democrats seats, but not enough to lose control.
3. House Democrats run far better campaigns than House Republicans. This is why
Democrats won three major off-year elections.
4. House Democrats first elected in 2006 and 2008 have towering financial
advantages over Republican challengers.
5. House Democrats have the tactical flexibility to adapt and improvise in
their districts. They can ignore the spin from Washington insiders. They can run on their
platforms for the future, backed by their huge financial advantage. They need
not defend the present, a mistake some Democrats make, or advocate a return to
the Bush past, a mistake most Republicans make.
6. While Democrats have many imperfections, Republicans remain as unpopular as
they were during the Bush years. They have no coherent or appealing program
except vendetta opposition to President Obama and fanatical opposition to any
change from the widely unpopular Bush years.
7. Overzealous GOP rhetoric on immigration will do a generation of damage to
Republicans with the great Hispanic demographic wave.
There is a distemper and extremism in a Republican politics today. The GOP is
divided between those who practice the politics of extremism and destruction on
the rampaging right and those who practice the politics of nihilism and
obstruction, whose tactics are more radical than the segregationist senators
who filibustered against civil rights.
Republicans are plagued by what I call Sharron Angleism. Some slander jobless
workers or call for the end of Social Security. Others attack Medicare or
apologize to BP. They promise to bring back the only memory less popular than
Bush policies: to renew the politics of destruction in the House of
Representatives that impeached Bill Clinton while he was creating jobs and
balancing the budget.
Ronald Reagan and Jack Kemp would not feel comfortable in today's Republican
Party. Abe Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt would be appalled.
Voters are unhappy -- with good reason -- but they will not turn back the clock
to a past they have already rejected. Republicans will gain seats, but
Democrats will keep control.
