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OpEdNews Op Eds    H2'ed 10/8/22

Is Putin losing his war on Ukraine?

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Mark Lansvin
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Putin
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US President Biden warned of the dangers of an "armageddon" amid threats of nuclear war by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This comes after Putin's move last month when he announced the annexation of four parts of eastern Ukraine including Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. This comes as Russian troops were forced out of the key strategic Ukrainian town of Lyman, an important stronghold which the Russians no longer control even though it is now situated in an area Russia has annexed.

Putin's move to annex, coupled with murmurings over the use of nuclear weaponry as well as the mobilization of 300,000 troops speaks volumes about where the Russian president's head is right now, and according to some experts, it isn't looking good.

Some experts believe Putin is intentionally setting the stage for an eventual peace deal. This is why he is threatening nukes now, so that at some point he can appear to "soften" his stance. He called on Ukraine to commit to a "cease fire" immediately and "sit down at the negotiating table," but added: "We will not negotiate the choice of the people. It has been made. Russia will not betray it."

Putin is doing his best to hide it, but after the laughable performance of the Russian military since February and its devastating losses in Ukraine, he is clearly losing this war. He knows it and he is trying to maintain his "tough guy" image to cover for his mistakes.

Some military bloggers and political figures in Russia, including the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Putin have called for nuclear strikes. "More drastic measures should be taken, up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons," Kadyrov wrote in a comment on his Telegram channel.

Putin appears to have forgotten that the real source of danger to his regime is losing the support of ordinary Russians who have long provided the political cover for him. The unspoken rule in Russia was that the public leaves him alone politically and he provides them with security.

But now, having called up 300,000 citizens,with many fearing he actually wants to mobilize one million, hundreds of thousands of Russian civilians have lost all faith in Putin and are rushing to flee the country out of the fear he will close the borders temporarily, if not for many years.

This is a dangerous time to be a young Russian man or woman and Putin seems to be banking on the idea that he has multitudes of Russian civilians at his disposal with which to do as he pleases - even if it means sending them to the slaughter in a pointless and meaningless war against Ukraine.

Putin's decision to mobilize reservists, coupled with his threats and now the annexation, all point to his weakness and feeling of desperation. Some experts are questioning whether Putin is still a rational actor. If he is rational, then perhaps he can be stopped using reason and logic. If he is not rational, then this becomes a field of unknowns and could potentially deteriorate into a more dangerous situation.

Putin is rapidly losing the support of his people and with it, his political power. He is hoping he can present the Russian public with a win - such as this recent annexation of eastern Ukraine. In his view, he must give the public a reason to accept why so many young Russian soldiers are dying.

But if Putin sees he has lost the battle, not only in Ukraine, but in Russia itself among his own people, then he may be cornered into taking drastic, unconscionable action such as using nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

Is Putin losing the war in Ukraine? Just ask Putin.

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Mr. Lansvin is a strategic advisor on a range of issues for various NGOs and governments around the globe.

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