July 7, 2009
Before the disputed June 12 election, Iran's senior leadership -- speaking through backchannel intermediaries -- outlined a possible framework for Middle East peace that foresaw a significant role for Russia and that raised hopes within the Obama administration.
According to a source knowledgeable about the Iranian proposal, key elements included new elections in Palestine with the winner (even if it's Hamas) being accepted as the Palestinian representative; a peace conference in Russia with the goal of a two-state solution and regional recognition of Israel; opening Iran's nuclear facilities for inspection; and lifting sanctions on Iran .
The proposal reportedly came from Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and was to be pushed forward after the expected presidential election victory of Khamenei's favored candidate, incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
While it was unclear how President Barack Obama felt about the Iranian initiative, he did mute his criticism of the Iranian post-election crackdown at least initially. In his July 6-7 trip to Russia for meetings with President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Obama also made clear that Iran and Middle East peace were top issues to be discussed.
Still, while hoping to engage Iran in talks about its nuclear program and other regional concerns, the Obama administration ratcheted up the pressure.
Vice President Joe Biden declared on Sunday that the United States "cannot dictate" ¯ to Israel what to do if it determines that it is "existentially threatened" ¯ by Iran's nuclear program, a blunt suggestion that Iran may face an Israeli military attack on its nuclear facilities if progress is not made in regional security talks.
Though Biden referenced the club in the closet, Obama denied on Tuesday that the United States had given Israel a green light to use it.
Obama told CNN that "we have said directly to the Israelis that it is important to try and resolve this in an international setting in a way that does not create major conflict in the Middle East."
Obama also has reiterated his readiness to extend an open hand to Iran despite the violent repression of election protesters.
"We've got some fixed national security interests in Iran not developing nuclear weapons, in not exporting terrorism, and we have offered a pathway for Iran to rejoining the international community," ¯ Obama said in an interview with the New York Times on Sunday.
The Times also confirmed what I had been told earlier by an intelligence source regarding Iran's secret outreach to the Obama administration.
"Before Iran's disputed election on June 12, the president's top aides say, they received backchannel indications from Iran -- from emissaries who claimed to represent the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- that the country would respond to Mr. Obama's overtures this summer," ¯ the Times reported.
But the Times noted that the election clashes "have changed the political dynamics" ¯ and added that "senior administration officials said they have heard nothing from Iran's leaders." ¯ [NYT, July 6, 2009]
Ahmadinejad's Speech
After the initial announcement of his controversial victory, Ahmadinejad traveled to Russia and spoke to the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization as Medvedev's invited guest. Iran has observer status in the SCO, which now consists of Russia, China and four former Soviet republics.
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