Russia's invasion Ukraine was rightfully condemned in capitols around the world.
It's unified the West and made organizations like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization stronger. However, less has been said about the long-term consequences of this conflict and what it means for the future of peace. Writer Anatol Lieven is an exception, as he addressed the issue in his story "Where the War in Ukraine Could be Headed in 2023." He stated that the three most likely possibilities this year are a Russian breakthrough, a Ukrainian breakthrough, or a stalemate. With Russian forces increasing in numbers and dug in along shorter front lines with massive artillery support, it will be a major challenge for the Ukrainian army to break through, but the Ukrainians have astonished the world so often since the Russian invasion began that further victories cannot be excluded.
Lieven knows the dangers of a Russian pushback: "if Ukrainian troops were to break through to the Sea of Azov, isolating Crimea; or if they succeeded in recapturing a large part of the separatist eastern Donbas region that Russia has backed since 2014, then it seems likely that in response Russia would threaten, and possibly execute, some form of drastic escalation. This might begin with the symbolic bombardment (with conventional missiles) of NATO air bases or supply lines in Poland or Romania." Although it might not be likely, the conflict could spill over into the nuclear sphere if Russian President Vladimir Putin grows desperate enough.
Such a Russian attack would probably lead to a limited US military response - maybe the bombardment of a Russian base in the occupied part of Ukraine. Faced with the danger of nuclear war, the US and Europe would also most likely call for a ceasefire in Ukraine, arguing that Kyiv had won a sufficient victory by recapturing almost all the territory it has lost since the Russian invasion in 2022, even though they most likely won't take the areas taken by Russia and its allies since 2014. The West could call for a ceasefire which just might lead to the downfall of Putin.
The above move would be opposed by many in Ukraine and some NATO allies and segments of the US media; some would want a more complete victory. Intelligence estimates report that Russian and Ukrainian causalities are about the same. Russia has three times the population, but Putin has been unwilling to use conscripts in battle or to call up the reserves. Russia has sent 300,000 new troops into battle that are of questionable quality. Lieven said there is no reasonable chance of Russia taking Kyiv.
However, if Russia captures the whole of the Donbas region and strengthens its land bridge to Crimea, it seems highly likely that Putin would claim that key Russian goals have been achieved, and that Moscow would then offer a ceasefire. This would divide the West with many arguing the ceasefire is the best that Ukraine can achieve, and the other side saying Russia must be more thoroughly defeated. Lieven said: "this argument would gain strength from the fact that only a stable ceasefire would end Russia's destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and allow Ukraine and its partners to begin the long and very expensive process of rebuilding the Ukrainian economy so as to advance Kyiv's hopes of joining the European Union." Some will argue that this will allow Russia the opportunity to build up their forces and start another war later.
If there is no diplomatic breakthrough, there could be a bloody stalemate along the present battle lines, like the Western front in World War I, as stated by Lieven. One can't rule out a ceasefire. It might be an unstable ceasefire like the one between India and Pakistan. Such a ceasefire would be accompanied by peace negotiations. It would be better than the present massive bloodshed in Ukraine; but unless accompanied by successful negotiations to reach a settlement, it would be fraught with negative elements: the potential for new wars, not only in Ukraine but also between Russia and other former Soviet states.
The diplomatic savvy of the West will be tested in the coming months.
Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer for the Peace Economy
