For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For want of a rider, the battle was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
Anon
It's tough to make predictions,
Especially about the future.
Yogi Berra
History teaches us that "the course of human events" has many surprises,
born of random chance and simple luck. History's "winners" are those who are
alert, flexible and creative in the face of these surprises. And that fact
should lend comfort to embattled progressives today.
For centuries, philosophers have spun elaborate "theories of history,"
spelling out the fates of peoples and nations, as, they claim, the engine of
history rolls inexorably along its fore-ordained course.
Plato, Hegel, Spengler, Marx, and in our time Frances Fukayama, have all
endeavored to sketch a "map" of the course that history "must" take. They
have no use for the lost nail that threw the rider that lost the battle and
the empire.
However, the details of actual recorded history indicate that time and again
the course of history turns on trivial and unpredictable contingencies. Put
simply, on plain dumb luck.
Some examples:
The Battle of Midway,
June, 1942. Just six months after the devastating attack
on Pearl Harbor, the Japanese fleet was poised to seize Midway atoll and
destroy much of what remained of the American Pacific fleet. If successful,
the Hawaiian Islands would be within reach of the Japanese Empire. And if
the Islands fell, the American fleet would be driven back to the west coast
of the United States, thus prolonging the war.
The American fleet had a feeble force with which to thwart the Japanese
onslaught - three aircraft carriers to four. The outcome of the battle
likely depended upon the first sighting of the opposing force. Due to a
chance break in the cloud cover, an American reconnaissance plane, at the
furthest reach of its range, located the Japanese Fleet. Soon thereafter, a
Japanese scout spotted the American fleet, but because the aircraft's radio
malfunctioned, a timely report could not be relayed back to the Japanese
fleet command.
Due to several additional lucky breaks, which I won't detail here, the
American dive bombers destroyed three Japanese aircraft carriers within
minutes, and the fourth was dispatched later that day. After the battle was
effectively over and won by the Americans, the crippled carrier Yorktown was
sunk by a Japanese submarine. Midway was the decisive battle of the Pacific
War. For the remainder of the war, the Japanese never won another sea
battle.
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