The reason for this title is to underscore the precarious and troubling situation into which Russia has evolved in the time of Vladimir Putin's leadership of the post-Soviet Russian government. There is an op-ed in the NYT today (Thursday) by Leon Aron that offers advice to us about what Putin is likely to do. It is a terrible essay full of illogic, guesswork, feeble understanding of Putin, Russia, America, human nature, and history. No one knows precisely what Putin will do. The assumption by the western press, lead by several alarmist correspondents and several acute observers, is that Putin is power hungry-not exactly power mad in a Stalinist sense-but unlikely to let go of his power or his new found wealth with sufficient grace to satisfy western democratic idealists. Mr. Aron believes that Putin will change the Russian Constitution to suit himself and remain as President, perhaps for life. Aron doubts that he will choose to become Prime Minister with a puppet President to whom he would "report."
Aron's notion that Putin has done opposite things from his pronouncements is not a very satisfying argument for Putin choosing Aron's way into a continued Presidency. Quite often political leaders do head-fakes to loosen up the opposition and to get opponents to commit too soon or too strenuously. It happens everywhere, including Washington.
Aron's argument that "stepping down" into the Prime Ministership would be a "self-abnegation," is a puerile notion that ignores Putin's hopes and plans for the Russia entrusted to his leadership. Aron simply has gone off the deep end of his fragile thesis and drowned in the confusion of historical fact.
The Russians want to move deliberately toward democracy. Speak with Russians here or there and you will find a people ready to try, but not quite ready to deal with the realities of their fellow man. Like conservatives in America many, very nearly the majority, of Russians distrust the motives of many of their countrymen and would prefer a time during which the Stalinist legacy of communal fear is dispelled. Rome was not built in a day, nor was the "Third Rome" of Russian folklore. These things take time, and meanwhile some people, like Putin, are going to get rich and powerful as the social order gradually takes on the necessary maturity to sustain a real democracy. As we are finding out in the United States, these things are very fragile, but nevertheless have a momentum all their own.
Putin is as likely to take the route toward a Prime Ministership as any, I believe. Taking this route would provide the Russians will an object lesson in the truth that power is both personal and institutional. It would try the parliamentary form of government in ways that have been obscured by the primacy of the President under Yeltsin and Putin. It might be a good way to go in a country that needs to learn democracy but cannot afford to become too weakened by a confusion of voices and perspectives. Putin would be able to "train" the parliament to a necessary strength, having already proven that the Presidency can be very powerful.
JB
