October 20, 2009
Options for Afghanistan; CNAS Report; United Nations Protectorate
by Arn Specter, Phila.
(Twitter and http://www.opednews.com/populum/diarymanage.php)
The following report, CNAS (Center for New American Security)
by Andrew Exum, offers 3 scenarios for U.S. and Allied actions
in Afghanistan (and Pakistan) and the region.
Two new factors, since the report, are:
1) Pakistan's mobilization of 30,000 troops now fighting in SW Pakistan
against the Taliban and al-Qaeda...in South Waziristan.
2) The Karzai government agreeing to the call by the United Nations to redo
the Afghan elections soon.
While Gen. McCrystal and his supporters want many more troops as soon as possible the Obama Administration and it's supporters want to link their review
and decision on renewed U.S. policy and further actions in Afghan on final elections in Afghanistan, which won't be for awhile yet.
It seems that in many of the talks and considerations about new strategies
and actions for Afghanistan there isn't nearly enough consideration given
to the need for more diplomacy and negotiations with the Taliban and al-Qaeda,
along with the Afghan, Pakistan governments, NATO and the United Nations.
It may be helpful is the U.S. Department of State and Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton stood up and called for more diplomacy. Also if the European
Community, providers of the NATO forces, offered their diplomatic expertise
to the discussions. Too, the United Nations could aid the effort.
It is fortunate that the Obama administration has held off making a quick decision on more troops for Afghanistan, so that a lively dialogue could take place both within the halls of Washington and in the U.S. and World media and among those
in the public who are interested in peacemaking and the end to the wars.
The situation there is extremely complex with no clear solution to the 'problem'.
This report by Andrew Exum does offer some valuable insights and possible courses of action that - in the long run- could bring much greater security and stablilty in Afghanistan and the region.
One of the great difficulties there however is that the Karsai government has been shown to be corrupt, now associated with violent warlords in power positions.
The U.S. (with taxpayer monies) has been giving millions and billions of dollars to this corrupt government over the years. It is obvious, with the Taliban gaining more power now than before, that this support of Karzai by the U.S. has cost the U.S. plenty, a failure in policy to the detriment of U.S. objectives and the welfare
of the Afghan people many who live in abject poverty and suffer many repressions- especially the women there who bravely call out fortheir human rights tohonored and upheld by the government and religious leaders.
In his section, A Foundation for Peace, Exum says, "The best case scenario
for Afghanistan is a functioning Afghan state inhospitable to transnational terror groups. In this scenario, a government representing all major factions in Afghanistan, however imperfectly, would be essential..."
Unfortunately a stable, secure and competent Afghan government is highly
unlikely given the reign of president Karzai and his recent inclusion of Warlords
in his government.The 'problem' seems to me much bigger than the U.S. and the Afghan government can resolve.A long-term plan is needed to stabilize the country. Such an effort calls for the international community to participate and even lead the way.
I've advocated a two stage strategy for the U.S. and International community.
1) hold off on deploying more U.S./NATO troops for Afghanistan.
2) call for an internationalconference of all 'parties', the U.S. NATO, the EuropeanUnion, the United Nations, the Arab League and others...to gain the insights and opinions of all concerned anddevelop a long-term plan for creating a stable,and secure Afghan state and culture.
A long-term plan might include the establishing Afghan as a UN protectorate
for a few years, giving protection to the millions of people there and a chance for progressive forces to change the government while maintaining a climate of peace.
Also, a serious effort needs to be made to end the poppy/opium cultivation and trade. this illicit and dangerous business has harmed many thousands of people, their families and communities. It also has generated funds which has supported the corrupt Karzai government and the Taliban forces as well.
While some attempts have been made by the U.S./NATO forces to diminish the poppy cultivation and production the trade and business continues making billions of dollars every year and further corrupting the country. It may be that only outside forces, such as the United Nations, can actually take the kinds of actions and establish the laws that would prohibit the cultivation and sale of opium in Afghanistan...certainly if would be well worth the effort.
There is some time now before the U.S. completes the review and makes its decision on U.S. policy in Afghanistan. Perhaps our input to the administration and Congress can make a difference for the better.
Arn Specter, Phila. (Twitter and www.opednews.com)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Forwarded Message ----
From: Center for a New American Security <info@cnas.org>
To: arnpeace@yahoo.com
Sent: Tue, October 20, 2009
From: Center for a New American Security <info@cnas.org>
To: arnpeace@yahoo.com
Sent: Tue, October 20, 2009
Subject: CNAS Releases Afghanistan Policy Brief by Andrew Exum
If you're having trouble viewing this email, you may see it online.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CNAS Releases Afghanistan Policy Brief
by Andrew Exum
Read the full policy brief here.
Exum, who was a civilian advisor to Gen. Stanley McChrystal in Afghanistan, writes that the Obama Administration should consider three scenarios:
- In the "worst-case and most unlikely scenario, Afghanistan returns to pre-9/11 conditions where insurgent groups again gain control of the nation, reestablish an Islamic Emirate, and grant refuge to transnational terror groups.
- In the "most-likely scenario, the Obama Administration cautiously transitions to a coordinatedcounterterrorism mission where allied engagement is limited to training Afghanistan national security forces, employing precision airpower and conducting direct-action special operations.
- In the third and "best-case scenario, the United States and its allies agree to a fully resourced campaign to provide security for key population centers and continue to develop effective security forces. By committing to a foundation for peace in Afghanistan, the United States and its allies achieve its main policy objective of regional stability.
About the author: Andrew Exum is a Fellow at CNAS. He served on active duty in the U.S. Army from 2000 until 2004. He led a platoon of light infantry in Afghanistan in 2002 and a platoon of Army Rangers in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2003 and 2004, respectively. Most recently, Exum served as an advisor on the CENTCOM Assessment Team and as a civilian advisor to Gen. Stanley McChrystal in Afghanistan. He is the founder of the counterinsurgency blog Abu Muqawama.
###
The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) is an independent and nonpartisan research institution that develops strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies that promote and protect American interests and values. CNAS leads efforts to help inform and prepare the national security leaders of today and tomorrow.
Press Contacts:
Shannon O'Reilly
Director of External Relations
Email: soreilly@cnas.org
Ph: (202) 457-9408
Ashley Hoffman
Deputy Director of External Relations
Email: ahoffman@cnas.org
Ph: (202) 457-9414
This email was sent to arnpeace@yahoo.com. To ensure that you continue receiving our emails,
please add us to your address book or safe list.
manage your preferences | opt out using TrueRemove
Got this as a forward? Sign up to receive our future emails.
