The latest Fifth National Climate Assessment by the Biden administration echoes a longstanding scientific consensus: the entire United States is vulnerable to the escalating impacts of climate change.
Published on Tuesday, the report delivers a stark assessment of the nation's situation as climate change intensifies, emphasizing that current strategies and investments to mitigate its effects are grossly inadequate. However, thankfully, the report isn't just a harbinger of doom; it also outlines potential pathways towards a more optimistic future.
Key findings of the report reiterate known concerns: no region in the U.S. is immune to the adverse effects of climate-related disasters; drastically reducing fossil fuel consumption is essential to mitigate these impacts, yet progress in this area is lagging; and every incremental increase in global temperatures exacerbates the severity of climate-related events.
What sets this report apart are its novel insights. With greater certainty than ever before, scientists can now pinpoint how the climate crisis has intensified various weather phenomena. They can more accurately attribute, with even more certainty, the increased strength and frequency of rainstorms, hurricanes, and wildfires, as well as the heightened severity of long-term droughts and the deadly nature of heatwaves, to climate change. This enhanced understanding underscores the urgency for immediate and effective action to address the looming climate crisis.
"Anyone who willfully denies the impact of climate change is condemning the American people to a very dangerous future," Biden said on Tuesday in remarks about the assessment. "The impacts we're seeing are only going to get worse, more frequent, more ferocious, and more costly."
The report paints a grim picture of the future impact of climate change, projecting a staggering 4.7-fold increase in heat-related fatalities by the middle of this century if current levels of government inaction on global warming persist.
In the U.S. alone, the grim evidence of climate change in North Carolina is clear. The state is experiencing its most significant drought in seven years, but is also coping with deluges. Snow is becoming rare as winters warm. This year Raleigh saw the highest temperature ever recorded in February - 29 degreesC.
Delving into the broader context, the report, part of the annual Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, warns that the planet is heading towards a 2.7 degreesC (4.86 degreesF) increase in temperature by the year 2100, unless significant measures are taken to reduce emissions. This report not only analyzes the consequences of a 2 degreesC temperature rise by century's end but also, for the first time, offers projections that emphasize the escalating health risks should the Paris Agreement's goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degreesC be unmet.
In 2023, Earth is on track to experience its hottest year on record, continuing a trend where the past eight years have been the warmest ever recorded. The Lancet Countdown research fellow in climate change and health highlights the already visible detrimental health impacts, including more frequent and intense heatwaves, hazardous outdoor work conditions, and an increase in heat-related deaths. Particularly alarming is the doubling of heatwave days experienced by vulnerable groups such as the elderly and infants in the past decade compared to 20 years ago.
The report also notes a disturbing trend in energy-related emissions, which hit a record high last year. The threat posed by climate change is further quantified in the report's finding that people were exposed to an average of 86 days of health-threatening high temperatures last year, with 60% of these extreme temperatures being more than twice as likely due to human-caused climate change.
Another critical aspect highlighted is the impact on food availability and prices. Over 100 million additional people faced food insecurity in 2021, with human-induced climate change identified as a direct cause. The Lancet Countdown predicts every monitored health hazard to intensify with a 2 degreesC temperature rise by the century's end. This includes a forecast of a whopping 370% increase in annual heat-related deaths by mid-century and a 50% increase in hours of potential labor lost globally due to heat exposure. The frequency of heatwaves could place approximately half a billion more people at risk of moderate to severe food insecurity between 2041 and 2060, aggravating the global malnutrition crisis.
In addition to these horrifying predictions, life-threatening infectious diseases are expected to spread more widely by mid-century.
These findings are echoed in a concurrent United Nations report, which emphasizes that countries are falling short in fulfilling their emissions pledges. This revelation comes just before the upcoming UN climate summit. The report focuses on the United States and China, the world's largest emitters and leaders in renewable energy. Both countries have set ambitious emission reduction targets, with the U.S. committing to a 50% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030 and China aiming for over 65% reduction within the same timeframe.
However, the report criticizes these high-emitting countries for not doing enough to combat pollution. If the new climate assessment report means anything, it signals a dire need for countries to take action today - or we are all doomed.
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