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Will US and UK strikes on Houthis in Yemen achieve anything?

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The United States and the United Kingdom have intensified their military involvement in Yemen by launching a new series of coordinated air strikes targeting the Houthi rebel group. The Pentagon announced that the operation, conducted on Monday, successfully hit a total of eight strategic Houthi targets. These included an underground facility used for storage purposes and key components of the Houthis' missile and surveillance systems.

The Houthis, who receive backing from Iran, have been actively targeting vessels in the Red Sea. They allege these ships have connections to Israel and Western countries. The Red Sea is a crucial maritime trade route, and the Houthis' actions have raised international concerns about the safety and unimpeded flow of commerce through this vital area.

In response to these threats, the US and UK governments have declared their commitment to ensuring the uninterrupted movement of trade in the region. A formal statement from the Pentagon highlighted the latest air strikes as "proportionate and necessary", aimed at countering the Houthis' aggressive postures. The statement emphasized the objective of reducing tensions and stabilizing the situation in the Red Sea region, while also issuing a stern warning to the Houthi leadership about the determination of the US and UK to defend lives and the freedom of maritime commerce against ongoing threats.

This latest operation marks the eighth instance of the US targeting Houthi forces in Yemen, and it is the second time such an operation has been executed in collaboration with the UK. The first joint operation took place on January 11th.

The UK's Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, addressed the media, conveying a firm message about the UK's resolve to weaken the Houthis' offensive capabilities. When questioned about the potential for these strikes to escalate tensions in the Middle East, Cameron pointed to the Houthis as the primary escalators of the conflict. He expressed confidence in the effectiveness of the previous military actions.

Addressing the narrative propagated by the Houthis, which links the air strikes to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, Cameron rejected this perspective. He stressed the UK's desire for a prompt resolution to the Gaza conflict. Furthermore, Cameron announced the UK's call for an "immediate humanitarian pause" in the region, hoping it would evolve into a lasting and sustainable ceasefire. He plans to propose this initiative during his forthcoming visit to the region.

The Biden administration has acknowledged that simply attacking the Houthi militants will not be enough to stop them from threatening commercial ships in the Middle East. President Joe Biden and his team, based on discussions with U.S. officials, are working through a multifaceted strategy to address this issue. It's understood that a singular approach won't be effective in pressuring the militants to halt their missile launches. Instead, a combination of factors over a considerable period, possibly including a slowdown in the fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, is required.

Key to this strategy is degrading the Houthis' capabilities through U.S. attacks and intercepting vessels that supply weapons to Yemen. Additionally, recent actions to reclassify the Houthis as a terrorist group have ramped up sanctions, aiming to cut off the resources that fund their operations.

The crisis in the international shipping lanes, which has led to increased prices and risks to human lives, is expected to draw international attention and demands for a solution from countries with vested interests, such as China. Concurrently, a more targeted Israeli military approach in Gaza could lead to fewer civilian casualties, potentially undermining the Houthis' pretext for defending the Palestinians, thus removing one of their rallying cries.

However, changing the Houthis' strategic priorities remains a complex challenge. Experts point out the difficulty in altering the Houthis' course. The U.S. would need to impose significant costs on the Houthis or change the underlying logic of their actions.

Inside the administration, there's a recognition that resolving the Houthi crisis won't happen quickly, and there's no immediate solution that effectively addresses all aspects of the problem. The longer the conflict persists, the greater the risk of the Houthis harming Americans, which could escalate to the U.S. taking more aggressive actions against Iranian interests.

In essence, the Biden administration is navigating a complicated and layered geopolitical situation in Yemen and the broader Middle East, involving military, diplomatic, and economic tactics, with a clear understanding of the challenges and the absence of a quick fix.

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Mr. Lansvin is a strategic advisor on a range of issues for various NGOs and governments around the globe.

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