Burma's
current political scenario is more blurred than its external phenomena. Despite
the obscurity of its politics, Burma is known that there are rivalries within
the current cabinet. While soft-liners stand with President Thein Sein, the
hardliners are challenging Thein Sein's new approach, primarily his risk at mutual
understanding with Aung San Suu Kyi and the pro-democracy factions.
These
hardliners favor continued supporting strong military dominance throughout the
country and the purging of any opposition. Burma's armed forces have been fantastically
faithful and unified shielding the military dictatorship since 1962. For more
than fifty years, there was no threat of split in the ruling chain of military command.
But if measures are expected to be getting out of control, there cannot be forget
about coup d'Ã ©tat in order to replace direct military ruling.
Thein
Sein and his cabinet members have taken a number of steps that seem intended to
meet the constant calls of the international community. For example, the
president has met with Burma's Nobel laureate and democracy icon Aung San Suu
Kyi. Besides, he agreed to stop the controversial Myitsone dam project financed
by China, as a sign of respect towards people's desire.
Even
though, he cannot make a decision to stop the ongoing civil war with Kachin,
Karen and Shan ethnic armed groups. If the president could not manage to end civil
war, his dream of good governance and poverty alleviation may be a castle in
the wind.
Who
is the decision-maker of the war against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA)?
Although, President Thein Sein has been speaking about the national unity for
many times, the wars with ethnic groups continue. If these wars are not
launched by the government, then the person responsible for this war may be the
present military boss General Min Aung Hlaing.
Then,
another question arises. Does the military boss comply with the defense
minister of the new government? The President Thein Sein government used to say
that it has been trying to build a peaceful and developed country; on the other
hand the momentum of civil war is increasing. So, the words of the government
are not in harmony with the acts of the armed forces.
Keeping
political dissidents in prison and attacking ethnic armed groups is the policy
of the previous junta's boss, Sen. Gen Than Shwe. Hence, it is to be considered
that the new military boss is going along with Than Shwe's policy rather than
President Thein Sein's guidelines. Then, there is another question: Is Than
Shwe still powerful in Burma's politics?
The
war in Kachin State seems to be the outcome of the policy divergence between
the Burmese government and the Burma Army. It means the military is standing
together with the hardliners of the existing cabinet led by the vice president
Tin Aung Myin Oo. Moreover, the hardliners are also a pro-China faction.
Hardliners have decided to protect the Chinese development projects in Kachin
State in addition to their power structure and business profits.
Because
of the China factor, some observers think, the soft-liners led by President
Thein Sein cannot stop simply the war against KIA and they cannot afford to
free all political prisoners in favor of change. People believe that China is
pulling the strings in Burma's politics in order to establish its regional
strategic power.
Meanwhile,
over 2,000 Chinese soldiers have deployed along the Sino-Burma border in its
south-western Yunnan province, as civil war escalates in northern Burma between
government troops and Kachin resistance forces, Kachin News Group said.
Bum
Htoi, a border-based military analyst and former officer of the Chinese-backed
Communist Party of Burma (CPB), said more Chinese People's Liberation Army
troops have been deployed on the lengthy border with Burma in Kachin State and
Shan State since early October.
According
to eyewitnesses, Chinese troops are mainly deploying at Jang Hkawng, La Ying,
Manghai (former CPB headquarters) and Xiao Zhai. The Kachin Independence Army
(KIA) also confirmed Chinese combat troops are currently deploying near KIA
strongholds close to the China border, KNG said.
Over
300 Chinese troops are currently stationed at the newly constructed military
post in the Chinese town of Manghai, opposite Mongkoe in Burma, according to
residents of Mongkoe. Over a hundred Chinese PLA troops have been deployed at
Manghai since Burmese troops began a new offensive against the KIA on June 9,
Bum Htoi added.
He
said, "It is unusual that over 2,000 Chinese troops are deployed near the Burma
border. It is aimed at blocking Kachin refugees from crossing into Chinese
soil."
According
to IDP aid groups, at present Chinese border authorities have been not only
preventing Kachin refugees from entering China but also barring the cross-border
food and medicine supplies from China to KIA-controlled areas where over 20,000
Kachin internally displaced persons take shelter, KNG reported.
Increasingly,
Kachin people in battle-zones are escaping to temporary camps in the KIA
controlled areas and Burmese government-controlled areas in Kachin State and
Shan State, aid groups in Laiza said.
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