Diary: According to Professor Bem, I'm psychic

The New York Times tells about a professor Daryl J. Bem's article, published in The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, where Bem had test subjects predict behind which of two blank screens on a computer monitor a picture would be. The odds on a correct choice are 50/50. His test subjects got 53% right.

Professor Bem says that 53% proves that they have ESP, extrasensory perception.

I just got through flipping a quarter 100 times and I got 58 right just by predicting heads every time. Flipping a quarter exactly mirrors Bem's test. You only have one of two choices. According to professor Bem, I'm 2 2/3 more psychic than his test subjects.

What would you like to know?

Actually, the amount of information the test subjects had reduces the test to only an either/or guessing test. They knew it would appear on a computer monitor, they knew there would be two blank screens, they knew that a picture would be behind one of the two screens. Sheer guesswork took care of the "predictions."

If Bem really wanted to test a subject for ESP, he would ask them to predict a real event, such as the amount of snow and the day it will fall on the city of Atlanta, Georgia in the next ten years, or the exact time a city bus will arrive at the intersection of Seventh and University streets in Fort Worth, Texas.

I live here, and I can't do that.