The best way to discourage voting—and thwart democracy—is to predict a big win for any party. Given the uphill climb for congressional representation that Democrats have in front of them (especially for the progressive subset of the party) it’s clear that the midterms will largely be decided by the people who find a reason to vote. Pew Research shows Republicans generally have higher turnout than Democrats. Democrats might reconsider any “we got this” conclusions or talk of blue waves. Overconfidence cost them in 2016, and for democracy’s sake, they can’t let themselves fall into the same trap.