Setting a Trap
Seen in retrospect, Russia's demand for a written response was a trap, one neither the U.S. nor NATO yet recognizes. By rejecting Russian demands for security guarantees, the U.S. and NATO have married themselves to a posture defined by the "open-door" policy on NATO membership. Moreover, when Russia refused to cease its mobilization in the face of sanctions threats, the U.S. and NATO had no choice but to shift gears and create the perception of a military response designed to put pressure on Russia's eastern flank even though Washington has pointedly said it would not defend Ukraine from a Russian assault.
What emerged was, first, that neither the U.S. nor NATO is able to project meaningful military power even within NATO's own borders. Putting 8,500 U.S. troops on alert for potential deployment to Europe is like bringing a garden hose to a three-alarm fire.
Moreover, threatening to activate NATO's rapid response force for a non-NATO issue created fractures in the unity of NATO. Germany has been hesitant. The Czech Republic and Bulgaria have forbade their troops to be involved in any such adventure. Turkey views the entire Ukraine crisis as a U.S./NATO conspiracy to contain Turkish regional ambitions by tying it to a conflict with Russia.
These military fractures, in concert with Europe's hesitation to commit economic suicide by going along with sanctions that would sever it from Russian energy it needs to survive, has provided Russia with three main takeaways: NATO is militarily impotent; no unanimity exists within either NATO or Europe on economic sanctions targeting Russia; and NATO a consensus-based organization is deeply fractured politically.
Moves to Checkmate
Despite the repeated Western warnings, Russia is highly unlikely to invade Ukraine at least not yet. Instead, Russia appears to be entering a new phase of crisis management that seeks to exploit the weaknesses in the U.S./NATO alliance highlighted by their written responses to its demands.
First, Russia will keep the diplomatic option open, but on its terms. Moscow has already engaged in so-called Normandy Format talks involving Russia, France, the U.K. and Ukraine over the ongoing crisis in Donbas. In the initial meeting, all parties agreed to respect the cease-fire in effect and to meet again in 10 days the exact opposite of any imminent invasion by Russia. Note the absence of the U.S. and NATO from these talks.
Next, Russia will turn the threat of sanctions against the U.S. and Europe. Russia has already declared that banning it from the Swift system for international monetary transactions will result in the immediate halt of Russian energy supplies to Europe. Russia is expected to sign major economic agreements with China soon that will further insulate it from economic sanctions. China has made it clear it supports Russia in the current crisis, recognizing that if the West prevails against Russia, it will soon face a similar attack.
Finally, Russia will exploit U.S. hypocrisy on spheres of influence and military alliances by entering military relationships with Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, and deploying a naval squadron to the Caribbean with the potential for additional force deployments in the future.
With these three measures, Russia seeks to further isolate the U.S. from NATO and Europe. In the end, the U.S. will be confronted with one of two options, either agree to trade NATO's open-door policy for Russian agreement not to deploy into the Western Hemisphere or force a confrontation that will result in a Russian invasion of Ukraine that is seen by Europe as being the fault of the U.S..
The chess pieces are already being moved. While the U.S. may not see it, a Russian checkmate can be predicted sooner, rather than later.
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