In 1996 tensions between Taiwan and the mainland led to some saber rattling by Beijing, but the PRC did not have the capacity to invade the island, and all the parties involved knew that. But Clinton was trying to divert attention from his dalliance with Monica Lewinsky and a foreign crisis fit the bill, so the US sent an aircraft carrier battle group through the Taiwan Straits. While the Straits are international waters, it was still a provocative move and one that convinced the PRC that it had to modernize its military if it was to defend its coasts.
There is a certain irony here. While the Americans claim that the modernization of the Chinese navy poses a threat, it was US actions in the Taiwan Straits crisis that frightened the PRC into a crash program to construct that modern navy and adopt the strategy of Area Denial. So, did we nurse the pinion to impell the steel?
Trump has certainly exacerbated the tensions. The US now routinely sends warships through the Taiwan Straits, dispatched high level cabinet members to Taipei, and recently sold the island 66 high performance F-16s fighter bombers.
In Beijing's eyes all these actions violate the agreements regarding Taiwan and, in practice, abrogate China's claim on the breakaway province.
It is a dangerous moment. The Chinese are convinced the US intends to surround them with its military and the Quad Alliance, although the former may not be up to the job, and the latter is a good deal shakier than it looks. While India has drawn closer to the Americans, China is its major trading partner and New Delhi is not about to go to war over Taiwan. Australia's economy is also closely tied to China, as is Japan's. Having trade relations between countries doesn't preclude them going to war, but it is a deterrent. As for the US military: virtually all war games over Taiwan suggests the most likely outcome would be an American defeat.
Such a war, of course, would be catastrophic, deeply wounding the world's two major economies and could even lead to the unthinkable -- a nuclear exchange. Since China and the US cannot "defeat" one another in any sense of that word, it seems a good idea to stand back and figure out what to do about the South China Sea and Taiwan.
The PRC has no legal claim to vast portions of the South China Sea, but it has legitimate security concerns. And judging from Biden's choices for Secretary of State and National Security Advisor -- Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, respectively -- it has reason for those concerns. Both have been hawkish on China, and Sullivan believes that Beijing is "pursuing global dominance."
There is no evidence for this. China is modernizing its military, but spends about one third of what the US spends. Unlike the US, it is not building an alliance system -- in general, China considers allies an encumbrance -- and while it has an unpleasant authoritarian government, its actions are directed at areas Beijing has always considered part of historical China. The PRC has no designs on spreading its model to the rest of the world. Unlike the US-Soviet Cold War, the differences are not ideological, but are those that arise when two different capitalist systems compete for markets.
China doesn't want to rule the world, but it does want to be the dominant power in its region, and it wants to sell a lot of stuff, from electric cars to solar panels. That poses no military threat to the US, unless Washington chooses to challenge China in its home waters, something Americans neither want nor can afford.
There are a number of moves both countries should make.
First, both countries should dial down the rhetoric and de-escalate their military deployment. Just as the US has the right to security in its home waters, so does China. Beijing, in turn, should give up its claims in the South China Sea and disarm the bases it has illegally established. Both of those moves would help create the atmosphere for a regional diplomatic solution to the overlapping claims of countries in the region.
The cost of not doing this is quite unthinkable. At a time when massive resources are needed to combat global warming, countries are larding their military budgets and threatening one another over islands and reefs that will soon be open sea if climate change does not become the world's focus.
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