In Bahrain, the Shiite majority is protesting against its Sunni ruler, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa . The Sultanate of Oman is facing rare violent civil unrest. In Yemen, violent protests against president Saleh are threatening to stir unrest among the Ismaili Shiite sect in Saudi Arabia's southwestern Jizan and Najran provinces. Not surprisingly, the governments of Kuwait (with 30 percent Shiite population), Qatar (5 to 10 percent) and the United Arab Emirates (15 percent), have been preemptively promising political reform and increasing subsidies in an attempt to keep unrest from spreading to their countries.
Saudi Arabia has feared that the instability rocking the region would eventually find its way to the kingdom's Eastern Province where most of the country's oil fields are located and where its Shiite population is concentrated. The Saudi Shiite population is estimated at 15 percent while 75 percent of the Eastern Province population is Shiite who have complained of second-class status. Obviously, they are watching protests in neighboring Bahrain where Shiites are demanding democratic reforms.
Unrest in Bahrain, which is linked to Saudi Arabia by a 26 kilometer (16 mile) causeway and whose capital, Manama, is only a four hour drive from the Saudi capital Riyadh, has in the past spread across the border. In 1995, the Saudi government arrested a large number of Shiites in its Eastern Province on suspicion of involvement in protests taking place in Bahrain, according to Human Rights Watch.
To borrow Escobar Pepe's philosophy, what Bahrain's Shiites can certainly accomplish is to inspire Shiites in Saudi Arabia in terms of a long fight for greater social, economic and religious equality. The potential for protests in Bahrain to oust the kingdom's Sunni rulers is a major strategic threat to Saudi Arabia, says Ayham Kamel, an analyst at the Eurasia Group in Washington which monitors political risk. "Inspired by their counterparts in Bahrain, Shiites will seek greater social, economic and religious equality," he said. "Regionally, Saudi Arabia's stability is at risk if the Shiite opposition succeeds in toppling the Al Khalifa regime in Bahrain."
Saudi authorities' response to the unrest
King Abdullah has responded to the building public discontent with a $37 billion package of subsidies, unemployment benefits, pay raises and housing promises, including the creation of 1,200 jobs and a 15% pay raise for all government employees. In what looks to be a classic move of consumer pacification, the King has ordered that $1.93 billion owed by 620,000 Saudis be forgiven.
On Sunday, he offered a new incentive, ordering that government move to provide permanent contracts to workers who have been employed under temporary ones. Such contracts denied them major perks like state pensions. The statement from the royal court did not say how many workers that would affect, but analysts estimate it would be well over 50,000.
Leading intellectuals have warned the $37 billion in advance of protests did not substitute for meaningful political reform. Saudi scholars and academics have called on the royal family to learn from the unrest sweeping the region saying Arabs are looking for freedom, dignity and democracy. "People don't revolt because they are hungry," Saudi expat Ahmad al-Omran noted on his Saudi Jeans blog. "Money won't solve our issues. We need true political and social reform."
In an open letter published last week, 119 Saudi intellectuals, activists and university professors called on the king to launch major political reforms and allow citizens to have a greater say in ruling the country. Their key demand is elections to the Shura Assembly.
"The current situation ... is full of reasons for concern," said the statement. "We are seeing ... a receding of Saudi Arabia's prominent regional role for which our nation was known and the .... prevalence of corruption and nepotism, the exacerbation of factionalism and a widening in the gap between state and society."
Detailing a list of economic and social ills in the kingdom, the statement said "the people's consent is the sole guarantee for the unity and stability" and the people must be the source of power. It said that while Saudi Arabia enjoys tremendous oil wealth, the money needs to be better distributed to the people instead of being channeled to expensive projects with few immediate benefits.
The statement called for the establishment of a constitutional monarchy and the election of members of the advisory assembly known as the Shura Council. It calls for immediate action to set a timeline for the reforms, the release of political prisoners and the lifting of the travel ban on activists or intellectuals who have run afoul of the monarchy and allow unfettered freedom of expression.
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