Tariq Rauf, former Head of Verification and Security Policy at the IAEA and currently Director of the Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), hailed the deal as "the most significant multilateral nuclear agreement in two decades -- the last such agreement was the 1996 nuclear test ban treaty." Rauf even advanced that the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize should go to US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif.
Rebuilding trust between the US and Iran, though, will be a long and winding road.
Tehran agreed to a 15-year moratorium on enriching uranium beyond 3.67 percent; this means it has agreed to reduce its enrichment capacity by two-thirds. Only Natanz will conduct enrichment; and Fordo, additionally, won't store fissile material.
Iran agreed to store no more than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium -- a 96% reduction compared to current levels. The Arak reactor will be reconfigured, and won't be used to produce plutonium. The spent fuel will be handled by an international team.
The IAEA and Iran signed a roadmap in Tehran also this Tuesday; that was already decided last week in Vienna. By December 15, all past and present outstanding issues -- that amount to 12 items -- should be clarified, and the IAEA will deliver a final assessment. IAEA access to the Parchin military site -- always a very contentious issue -- is part of a separate arrangement.
One of the major sticking points these last few days in Vienna was solved -- with Tehran allowing UN inspectors to visit virtually any site. But it may object to a particular visit. A Joint Commission -- the P5+1 + Iran -- will be able to override any objections with a simple majority vote. After that Iran has three days to comply -- in case it loses the vote. There won't be American inspectors -- shades of the run-up towards the war on Iraq; only from countries with diplomatic relations with Iran.
So implementation of the deal will take at least the next five months. Sanctions will be lifted only by early 2016.
What's certain is that Iran will become a magnet for foreign investment. Major western and Asian multinationals are already positioned to start cracking this practically virgin market with over 70 million people, including a very well educated middle class. There will be a boom in sectors such as consumer electronics, the auto industry and hospitality and leisure.
And then there's, once again, oil. Iran has as much as a whopping 50 million barrels of oil stored at sea -- and that's about ready to hit the global market. The purchaser of choice will be, inevitably, China -- as the West remains mired in recession. Iran's first order of work is to regain lost market share to Persian Gulf producers. Yet the trend is for oil prices to go down -- so Iran cannot count on much profit in the short to medium term.
Now for a real war on terror?
The conventional arms embargo on Iran essentially stays, for five years. That's absurd, compared to Israel and the House of Saud arming themselves to their teeth.
Last May the US Congress approved a $1.9 billion arms sale to Israel. That includes 50 BLU-113 bunker-buster bombs -- to do what? Bomb Natanz? -- and 3,000 Hellfire missiles. As for Saudi Arabia, according to SIPRI, the House of Saud spent a whopping $80 billion on weapons last year; more than nuclear powers France or Britain. The House of Saud is waging an -- illegal -- war on Yemen.
Qatar is not far behind. It clinched an $11 billion deal to buy Apache helicopters and Javelin and Patriot air defense systems, and is bound to buy loads of F-15 fighters.
Trita Parsi, president of the National American-Iranian Council, went straight to the point; "Saudi Arabia spends 13 times more money on its defense than Iran does. But somehow Iran, and not Saudi Arabia, is seen by the US as the potential aggressor."
So, whatever happens, expect tough days ahead. Two weeks ago, Foreign Minister Zarif told a small group of independent journalists in Vienna, including this correspondent, that the negotiations would be a success because the US and Iran had agreed on "no humiliation of one another." He stressed he paid "a high domestic price for not blaming the Americans," and he praised Kerry as "a reasonable man." But he was wary of the US establishment, which to a great extent, according to his best information, was dead set against the lifting of sanctions.
Zarif also praised the Russian idea that after a deal, it will be time to form a real counter-terrorism coalition, featuring Americans, Iranians, Russians, Chinese and Europeans -- even as Putin and Obama had agreed to work together on "regional issues." And Iranian diplomacy was giving signs that the Obama administration had finally understood that the alternative to Assad in Syria was ISIS/ISIL/Daesh, not the "Free" Syrian Army.
That degree of collaboration, post-Wall of Mistrust, remains to be seen. Then it will be possible to clearly evaluate whether the Obama administration has made a major strategic decision, and whether "normalizing" its relation with Iran involves much more than meets the eye.
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