Donald J. Trump" @realDonaldTrump
To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!
Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) Quds Force -- and a true rock star in Iran -- issued a blistering response to Trump: "You may begin the war, but it is us who will end it."
The IRGC yields massive economic power in Iran and is in total symbiosis with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. It's no secret the IRGC never trusted President Rouhani's strategy of relying on the JCPOA as the path to improve Iran's economy. After the unilateral Trump administration pullout, the IRGC feels totally vindicated.
The mere threat of a US attack on Iran has engineered a rise in oil prices. US reliance on Middle East Oil is going down while fracking -- boosted by higher prices -- is ramping up. The threat of war increases with Tehran now overtly referring to its power to cripple global energy supplies literally overnight.
In parallel the Houthis, by forcing the Yemen-bombing House of Saud to stop oil shipments via the Bab al-Mandeb port, are configuring the Strait of Hormuz and scores of easily targeted pipelines as even more crucial to the flow of energy that makes the West tick. If there ever was a US attack on Iran, Persian Gulf analysts stress only Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela might be able to provide enough oil and gas to make up for lost supplies to the West. That's not exactly what the Trump administration is looking for.
Iranian "nuclear weapons" was always a bogus issue. Tehran did not have them -- and was not pursuing them. Yet now the highly volatile rhetorical war introduces the hair-raising possibility of Tehran perceiving there is a clear danger of a US nuclear attack or an attack whose purpose is to destroy the nation's infrastructure. If cornered, there's no question the IRGC would buy nuclear weapons on the black market and use them to defend the nation.
This is the "secret" hidden in Soleimani's message. Besides, Russia could easily -- and secretly -- supply Iran with state-of-the-art defensive missiles and the most advanced offensive missiles.
This absurd game of chicken is absolutely unnecessary for Washington from an oil strategy point of view -- apart from the intent to break a key node of Eurasia integration. Assuming the Trump administration is playing chess, it's imperative to think 20 moves ahead if "winning" is on the cards.
If a US oil blockade on Iran is coming, Iran could answer with its own Strait of Hormuz blockade, producing economic turmoil for the West. If this leads to a massive depression, it's unlikely the industrial-military-security complex will blame itself.
There's no question that Russia and China -- the two key BRICS players -- will have Iran's back. First there's Russia's participation in Iran's nuclear and aerospace industries and then the Russia-Iran collaboration in the Astana process to solve the Syria tragedy. With China, Iran as one of the country's top energy suppliers and plays a crucial role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Russia and China have an outsize presence in the Iranian market and similar ambitions to bypass the US dollar and third-party US sanctions.
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