Additionally, if Manafort is pardoned, he would almost immediately be required by Mueller to testify before a grand jury, under penalty of perjury, and would have to testify truthfully, or he would be indicted for new crimes of perjury that would not be covered by the pardon. Trump's lawyers all know this, and have undoubtedly advised him of this as well.
In other words, if Trump pardons Manafort, he protects Manafort only to the degree that Manafort tells the whole truth to the grand jury after the pardon.
A pardon would not protect Trump, unless Manafort's testimony to the grand jury clears him, but if this were the case, Manafort would simply tell this story as part of his cooperation agreement with Mueller.
If Manafort is assuming that Trump will pardon him, he is playing a dangerous game with a very high likelihood that Trump is warned by his lawyers to not pardon him, that he will still be indicted in state courts and that he will be forced to testify before the grand jury after the pardon.
A Trump pardon of Manafort will be disaster for Trump, Manafort and congressional Republicans alike.
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