Given the requisite criteria, Barack Obama has several good choices. This is what his short list may resemble, and it is ordered from top to bottom, according to which candidates will be the most effective in helping him achieve a win:
1. Ted Strickland – Strickland is the Governor of Ohio. With 20 electoral votes, and a history of deciding national elections, as well as close polling numbers, Ohio is going to ground zero for the remainder of Election 2008, as both sides converge upon it. Had Al Gore won here in 2000, then we would have never heard of the Florida controversy.
2. Ed Rendell – A prominent Clinton supporter, Rendell’s day job is being the Governor of Pennsylvania. Though polls show that Obama should have little difficulty in defeating McCain here, Rendell can make a connection with voters in places like Michigan and neighboring Ohio.
3. Evan Bayh – Senator Bayh is popular Democrat from Indiana, a state that hasn’t voted a Democrat into the White House since John F. Kennedy. During his time as Governor, he passed one of the state’s largest tax cuts in history. He would be a particular persona for Ohioans and Michiganites alike, where their industrial economies are some of the worst in the country.
4. Brad Henry – He’s the term limited Governor of Oklahoma, where he’s only the second Democrat to serve two terms as Governor. In one of the redest of red states, he won his second term with over 66% of the vote. He’s already stated that he doesn’t plan to run for US Senate, so he has nothing to lose by accepting the VP nomination. Obama, on the other hand, doesn’t have as much to gain as he would with a Midwesterner, but Henry should be able to deliver all 7 of Oklahoma’s electoral votes, and bolster the campaign in the “second front,” which is the Southwest, and take the edge off of McCain’s home field advantage. Henry could be particularly helpful in courting voters in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. He could put the pressure on McCain in Texas, forcing Republicans to campaign and spend money unnecessarily, and might exhibit cross appeal to Missourians and beyond.
Ted Strickland, Ed Rendell, and Evan Bayh, in that order, represent Barack Obama’s best chances of winning the White House. All three enjoy high approval ratings, have Republican-like support among white males, and can win over conservatives, moderates, and independents.
Of the three, Senator Bayh is the least likely to accept a position on the ticket. Unlike Obama, it is far from a surefire thing that his seat will be filled by another Democrat. Senate Democrats only hold a one seat majority, and that may soon be reduced by a likely Lieberman defection. Despite odds that Democrats will make gains in the Senate this fall, both the leadership and Bayh may choose to hedge their bets.
Moving Down the List…
In a firestorm of speculation, a slew of names have been mentioned for this particular job, some of them are partially credible, such others are laughable.
Beginning with the somewhat credible:
5. Joe Manchin – He’s a Governor from one of those states where Hillary Clinton would beat John McCain, but Obama polls far behind. That state is West Virginia. With a mere five electoral votes, winning there isn’t much of a prize. But if Gov. Manchin can translate his 74% approval rating to courting votes in nearby Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia, then the former football player could be a valuable asset.
6. Tim Kaine – The popular Governor of the now “purple” state Virginia, and an early Obama supporter, Kaine could easily deliver all of the state’s 13 electoral votes for Obama, and he would have some wide reaching appeal. The problem is that such appeal might not reach the Midwest, or even nearby Kentucky and West Virginia.
7. Phil Bredesen – The Tennessee Governor has high approval ratings and conservative street cred for his support of the ban on “partial birth abortion.” The problem is that Tennessee and its 11 electoral votes aren’t worth the fight. McCain would be able to force an Obama/Bredesen campaign into spending a lot of money here when they should win it for free. For the record, Al Gore lost here in 2000, and it’s his home state; Kerry lost by eight points in 2004.
And the Rest…
For those who know politics, some of the other names suggest can be well laughed off, though they may sound good at first thought. These include Colorado Governor Bill Ritter, who only assumed office a few days after the Iowa caucuses. He still has a lot of work to do at his current job. Steve Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, is in the same boat, except that he also has perception problems within his own state. While his candidacy may be fun to think about, it’s just not practical.
Former presidential candidate and current Governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson’s name has often been brought up as a running mate who can bring Hispanics to the table and open up a strong second front in the Southwest. However, his ties to the Clintons and public feuding with the former President are a liability. What’s more is that there are a number of Americans who are reluctant to vote for a African American. That number is higher when the VP candidate is also not Caucasian.
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