Question by Oxford University Interviewer: The Assad regime appears to be making significant territorial gains with Russian and Iranian help. Do you expect a reversal or will he stay in power?
Franklin Lamb: For the immediate future, yes, he will remain. Barring an alternative plan by Iran, it appears to me that he and his Baathist Alawi dominated regime will remain. Iran wants Assad in power for the time being so as to guarantee its Persian Gulf to Mediterranean Sea Shia crescent arm shipments to Hezbollah, real estate acquisitions, population transfers, and future control of Syria's economic, security and military institutions and decision making apparatus.
According to Syrian and Russian military sources in Syria with whom I have discussed this subject at length, Iran has no plans to leave Syria. It plans to stay. Given growing fatigue by opposition supporters here in the region there is not much the West wants or can do about this reality short of another long-term war in this seemingly cursed region. There is also little that the Russians can do about this reality although they are increasingly unhappy about what they are witnessing from Tehran and its Shia militia across the region.
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