The Obama Game: Is Putin Being Lured Into a Trap?

Putin has agreed to a meeting this week with foreign Ministers from The United States, the European Union, and Ukraine. This is another mistake. Originally, Putin refused to acknowledge the coup-government as legitimate. Now he's changed his mind. Now he's agreed to meet with their representatives. This is a victory for Washington and a defeat for Russia. The Obama team will see this as a sign of weakness, which it is.

According to Al Jazeera: "The meeting will involve US Secretary of State John Kerry, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia, the EU said on Tuesday. A spokesman for Ashton said the talks were aimed at 'de-escalating' the crisis in Ukraine."

The meeting has nothing to do with "de-escalating... the crisis." It's a public relations stunt. These talks have all the credibility of the Israel-Palestine peace talks, which is to say, none at all.

There's no sense talking to people who don't want peace. It just makes them look like they are being sincere, when they're not. Obama and Co. don't want peace. They want regime change. They want to weaken and dismember Russia. They want to reduce Moscow's influence over energy-dependent states in Europe by disrupting the flow of gas through Ukraine. And they want to create a justification for carrying out their imperial agenda, which means they need to make Putin look like a dangerous aggressor. The coup government's crackdown on ethnic Russians in Donetsk and Kharkiv could lead to a Russian intervention which would provide the justification that Washington is looking for. However painful it is for Putin to watch Russian speaking Ukrainians get beaten and perhaps killed by Nazi thugs and foreign mercenaries dressed up as Ukrainian Security Forces, he should avoid sending in the troops. It's a trap.

At present, Ukraine's currency is plummeting, its debts and deficits are growing, and its economy is broken and near default. The IMF has promised to provide a $27 billion loan package that will be used to repay wealthy banks and bondholders in Berlin and Salzburg, but will do nothing to lift the economy out of the doldrums. None of the money from the IMF loans will be used to repay the $2.2 billion in unpaid gas bills to Gazprom or to compensate Russia for the more than $34.4 billion in subsidies Moscow has provided for its ailing neighbor in the last few years. Bondholders come first.

According to the World Socialist Web Site: "The 'tough' measures required by the IMF in return for a $27 billion loan is already being spelled out by a 120 percent hike in gas and heating prices, the cutting of social benefits, including free medical assistance, and the closure of several hospitals."

Naturally, the IMF's conditions will involve more privatizing of public assets and services, more pension and wage cuts, more easing ("flexibility") of labor protections, and more cannibalizing of the economy. Ukraine's economy will undoubtedly slip into the same severe depression experienced everywhere that these failed policies have been implemented. At the same time, voracious investment banks and private equity speculators will make out like bandits skimming billions of dollars in plunder off the distressed and vulnerable country.

The US media has made a big deal out of the fact that Putin "has threatened to turn off the gas to Ukraine." While the allegation is certainly true, we've seen no similar headlines about energy producers in the US cutting off the fuel for American families who are too broke to pay their gas bills and who've been "left to freeze to death in the dark." Nor have we seen similar coverage of the 7 million Americans who were booted from their homes as part of a mortgage laundering scam that was concocted by crooked Wall Street bankers. Putin is actually looking for a way to avoid turning off the gas and has asked for help on the matter from leaders of the US and EU. Here's what he said just last week:

"Russia is prepared to participate in the effort to stabilize and restore Ukraine's economy. However, not in a unilateral way, but on equal conditions with our European partners. It is also essential to take into account the actual investments, contributions and expenditures that Russia has shouldered by itself alone for such a long time in supporting Ukraine. As we see it, only such an approach would be fair and balanced, and only such an approach can lead to success."

Clearly, Putin doesn't want to continue shouldering the burden by himself, which is why he made the statement to begin with. The new coup government has repeatedly missed deadlines for payment on its gas supplies. Some believe they have deliberately stopped paying so Putin will cut off the gas, thus opening himself up to harsh criticism in the western media. Whether it's true or not is impossible to know, but so far, Washington has had little success selling the idea that Putin is "the new Hitler." 

The US is still viewed as the country that poses the greatest threat to world peace, while the Russian president is widely admired as a sober and restrained leader. However, that could change quickly if Putin sends troops to defend protesters in Donetsk and Lugansk. Even so, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned US Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday that if the coup government uses force on the protesters who have seized government buildings then Russia will not participate in the upcoming four-party talks on the crisis. Lavrov added that "the acute political crisis in Ukraine in general and in its southeastern regions in particular was caused by the present Kiev authorities' failure to take into account the legitimate needs and interests of the Russian and Russian-speaking population."

On Sunday, Ukrainian imposter-President Oleksandr Turchynov announced a plan to launch a "large-scale anti-terrorist operation" in Donetsk and Lugansk to avoid a "repeat the Crimean scenario in Ukraine's east." The operation will involve "military forces, anti-terrorist forces and law enforcement of Ukraine" and was scheduled to begin at 9 AM yesterday morning.

It's clear that Turchynov is trying to lure Russia into a fight, just as it's clear that the president would not have approved the crackdown without a green light from Washington.

Putin will not allow Russian-speaking people to be killed in Ukraine, that's the red line the junta government must not cross if they want to avoid a confrontation with Russia. Unfortunately, Washington wants Russia to invade so it can put its "proxy war" plan into motion.