In retrospect, it's hard to overstate the price Putin paid for China's backing. So desperate was he to preserve their new alliance that he sacrificed his only chance for a quick victory over Ukraine. By the time Putin landed in Beijing on February 4th, 130,000 Russian troops had already massed on the Ukrainian border. Delaying an invasion until the Olympics ended left most of them huddled in unheated canvas tents for three more weeks. When the invasion finally began, idling vehicles had burned through much of their fuel, truck tires sitting without rotation were primed for blow-outs, and the rations and morale of many of those soldiers were exhausted.
In early February, the ground in Ukraine was still frozen, making it possible for Russia's tanks to swarm overland, potentially encircling the capital, Kyiv, for a quick victory. Because the Olympics didn't end until February 20th, Russia's invasion, which began four days later, was ever closer to March, Ukraine's mud month when average temperatures around Kyiv rise rapidly. Adding to Moscow's difficulties, at 51 tons, its T-90 tanks were almost twice as heavy as the classic go-anywhere Soviet T-34s which won World War II. When those modern steel-clad behemoths did try to leave the roads near Kyiv, they often sank deep and fast in the mud, becoming sitting ducks for Ukrainian missiles.
Instead of surging across the countryside to envelop Kyiv, Russia's tanks found themselves stuck in a 40-mile traffic jam on a paved highway where Ukrainian defenders armed with shoulder-fired missiles could destroy them with relative ease. Being enveloped by the enemy instead of enveloping them cost the Russian army most of its losses to date estimated recently at 40,000 troops killed, wounded, or captured, along with 2,540 armored vehicles and 440 rocket and artillery systems destroyed. As those crippling losses mounted, Russia's army was forced to abandon its five-week campaign to capture the capital. On April 2nd, the retreat began, leaving behind a dismal trail of burned vehicles, dead soldiers, and slaughtered civilians.
In the end, Vladimir Putin paid a high price indeed for China's support.
President Xi's foreknowledge of the plans to invade Ukraine and his seemingly steadfast support even after so many weeks of lackluster military performance raise some revealing parallels with the alliance between Joseph Stalin, the leader of the Soviet Union, and China's Mao Zedong in the early days of the Cold War. After Stalin's pressure on Western Europe was blocked by the Berlin airlift of 1948-1949 and the formation of NATO in April 1950, the Soviet boss made a deft geopolitical pivot to Asia. He played upon his brand-new alliance with a headstrong Mao by getting him to send Chinese troops into the maelstrom of the Korean War. For three years, until his death in 1953 allowed an armistice to be reached, Stalin kept the U.S. military bogged down and bloodied in Korea, freeing him to consolidate his control over Eastern Europe.
Following this same geopolitical strategy, President Xi has much to gain from Putin's headstrong plunge into Ukraine. In the short term, Washington's focus on Europe postpones a promised (and long-delayed) U.S. "pivot" to the Pacific, allowing Beijing to further consolidate its position in Asia. Meanwhile, as Putin's military flattens cities like Kharkiv and Mariupol, making Russia an outlaw state, a mendicant Moscow is likely to become a cut-rate source of much-needed Chinese fuel and food imports. Not only does Beijing need Russia's gas to wean its economy from coal but, as the world's largest consumer of wheat, it could achieve food security with a lock on Russia's massive grain exports. Just as Stalin capitalized on Mao's stalemate in Korea, so the elusive dynamics of Eurasian geopolitics could well transform Putin's losses into Xi's gains.
For all these reasons, Washington's initial strategy had little chance of restraining Russia's invasion. As retired CIA analyst Raymond McGovern argued, drawing on his 27 years studying the Soviet Union for the agency, "Rapprochement between Russia and China has grown to entente." In his view, the sooner Biden's foreign-policy team "get it through their ivy-mantled brains that driving a wedge between Russia and China is not going to happen, the better the chances the world can survive the fallout (figurative and literal) from the war in Ukraine."
Sanctions
Since the Russian invasion began, the Western alliance has been ramping up an array of sanctions to punish Putin's cronies and cripple Russia's economic capacity to continue the war. In addition, Washington has already committed $2.4 billion for arms shipments to Ukraine, including lethal antitank weapons like the shoulder-fired Javelin missile.
On April 6th, the White House announced that the U.S. and its allies had imposed "the most impactful, coordinated, and wide-ranging economic restrictions in history," banning new investments in Russia and hampering the operations of its major banks and state enterprises. The Biden administration expects the sanctions to shrink Russia's gross domestic product by 15% as inflation surges, supply chains collapse, and 600 foreign companies exit the country, leaving it in "economic, financial, and technological isolation." With near unanimous bipartisan support, Congress has also voted to void U.S. trade relations with Moscow and ban its oil imports (measures with minimal impact since Russia only supplies 2% of American petroleum use).
Although the Kremlin's invasion threatened European security, Brussels moved far more cautiously, since Russia supplies 40% of the European Union's gas and 25% of its oil worth $108 billion in payments to Moscow in 2021. For decades, Germany has built massive pipelines to handle Russia's gas exports, culminating in the 2011 opening of Nordstream I, the world's longest undersea pipeline, which Chancellor Angela Merkel then hailed as a "milestone in energy cooperation" and the "basis of a reliable partnership" between Europe and Russia.
With its critical energy infrastructure bound to Russia by pipe, rail, and ship, Germany, the continent's economic giant, is dependent on Moscow for 32% of its natural gas, 34% of its oil, and 53% of its hard coal. After a month of foot-dragging, it did go along with the European decision to punish Putin by cutting off Russian coal shipments, but drew the line at tampering with its gas imports, which heat half its homes and power much of its industry.
To reduce its dependence on Russian gas, Berlin has launched multiple long-term projects to diversify its energy sources, while cancelling the opening of the new $11 billion Nordstream II gas pipeline from Russia. It has also asserted control over its own energy reserves, held inside massive underground caverns, suspending their management by the Russian state firm Gazprom. (As Berlin's Economy Minister Robert Habeck put it, "We won't leave energy infrastructure subject to arbitrary decisions by the Kremlin.")
Right after the Ukraine invasion, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a crash program to construct the country's first Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals on its north coast to unload supplies from American ships and those of various Middle Eastern countries. Simultaneously, German officials flew off to the Persian Gulf to negotiate more long-term deliveries of LNG. Still, the construction of such a multibillion-dollar terminal typically takes about four years, and Germany's vice-chancellor has made it clear that, until then, massive imports of Russian gas will continue in order to preserve the country's "social peace." The European Union is considering plans to cut off Russian oil imports completely, but its proposal to slash Russian natural-gas imports by two-thirds by year's end has already met stiff opposition from Germany's finance ministry and its influential labor unions, worried about losses of "hundreds of thousands" of jobs.
Given all the exemptions, sanctions have so far failed to fatally cripple Russia's economy or curtail its invasion of Ukraine. At first, the U.S. and EU restrictions did spark a crash in Russia's currency, the ruble, which President Biden mockingly called "the rubble," but its value has since bounced back to pre-invasion levels, while broader economic damage has, so far, proved limited. "As long as Russia can continue to sell oil and gas," observed Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson International Economics Institute, "the Russian government's financial situation is actually pretty strong." And he concluded, "This is the big escape clause of the sanctions."
In short, the West has seized a few yachts from Putin's cronies, stopped serving Big Macs in Red Square, and slapped sanctions on everything except the one thing that really matters. With Russia supplying 40% of its gas and collecting an estimated $850 million daily, Europe is, in effect, funding its own invasion.
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