Having seen what has happened to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen under the Bush and Obama administrations, the North Korean government will not give up what it perceives to be its major deterrent to an attack by the U.S. and South Korea -- its small but growing nuclear weapons program.
And the U.S. is doing nothing to signal anything but regime change is its policy. The annual U.S.-South Korean military exercises practice military operational plans with the mission of the overthrow of the North Korean government. The not so subtle title of the 2016 exercises of "Decapitation" did not give the North Koreans any indication that U.S. policy is anything but regime change.
Dulury suggests that to convince Kim to freeze the development of North Korea's nuclear weapons and the missile programs, as a first step, the Trump administration must design a package of security guarantees such as scaling back or suspending U.S.--South Korean military exercises and delaying the deployment of new U.S. military equipment such as the THAAD missile to South Korea.
Convening four-power talks among China, North Korea, South Korea, and the United States to negotiate and sign a treaty formally ending the Korean War, as Pyongyang has long demanded, would provide the basis for halting further development of its nuclear and long-range ballistic missile programs and allowing International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country to verify compliance.
Of course, other issues eventually would be raised such as improving North Korean human rights, relaxing restrictions on travel abroad, allowing foreign humanitarian organizations more freedom in North Korea, and closing political prison camps.
Direct negotiation is the only way to determine what Kim may be ready to do. As President Trump said during the campaign, he would be willing to talk with Kim as long as there was "a 10 percent or a 20 percent chance that [he could] talk him out of those damn nukes."
We should deal with North Korea as it is, not as we wish it to be
As Dulury wrote, "Wishful thinking about North Korea's imminent collapse has compromised U.S. strategy for far too long. Obama's strategic patience, envisioning a day when ...'the Korean people, at long last, will be whole and free,' wasted the early years of Kim Jong Un's reign in the mistaken belief that the regime would not survive long following Kim Jong Il's death."
Dr. Hecker agreed: "Talking is a necessary step to re-establishing critical links of communication to avoid a nuclear catastrophe."
Former Defense Secretary Perry added, "We should deal with North Korea as it is, not as we wish it to be."
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