And the ultimate consequences?
...with myriad imbalances already starting to unwind and economic conditions likely to be further undermined by geopolitical uncertainty, resource constraints, and the specter of growing divisiveness, the groundwork seems laid for a broad move away from American-style free-market capitalism. (71)
If there was any doubt about this, the global credit meltdown beginning in 2007, now having snowballed into global economic cataclysm, has put that doubt to rest and turned yet another prophet, namely Michael Panzner, into a historian.
One issue I wish the author had expanded upon is climate change and its inevitable ramifications in terms of climate refugees. The issue of tighter borders and the control of the flow of people and goods is frequently mentioned, but in the light of those realities, one wonders how nations will address the mass migrations of populations as a result of climate-induced droughts, famine, pandemics, and natural disasters. If as he states, and I agree, "Immigrants and foreigners will become scapegoats for domestic ills", we could legitimately infer an increase in violence issuing from mass shifts in population around the world.
In a chapter entitled "Local Is The New Global," the author argues, with solid evidence, the reversal of globalization and why issues must now be addressed "with a shift toward regionalization and localization of economic activity and investment flows." This may evolve quite naturally as myriad divisions globally erupt and reinforce the return to what is local and familiar.
Related to this trend, Panzner mentions a couple of secessionist movements in the United States but opines that "To be sure, many of these efforts will fizzle out or remain firmly on the fringe." To this I must respond: Don't be too certain about that. A strong secessionist movement abounds here in the state of Vermont, viewed by some as a conscious step that Vermonters must take to extricate themselves from the federal government, but viewed by other Vermonters as wise preparation for the very divisiveness explained by Panzner or simply imposed on the region by climate chaos, natural disasters, or dramatic changes in geography engendered by either of those.
In the spirit of the Transition Town movement and other voices of the Long Emergency, the author underscores the opportunity that is inherent for citizens, businesses, and communities in the collapse of empire. What will be required for the success of those opportunities, however, is the capacity to think outside the box. Whereas there are areas of the world that might actually offer the promise of investment opportunities-countries such as Canada, Brazil, New Zealand, Thailand, and Vietnam, investment for the average American is more likely to be a local affair as local economies are born and struggle to survive. Although Panzer does not dwell on the alternative or underground economy, there is likely to be plenty of opportunity to invest in it in ever-ingenious and unconventional ways.
In any event, Panzner argues that where one actually chooses to live is crucial, and in the last chapter of When Giants Fall, he discusses the probable demographics of collapse, that is, the likelihood that smaller cities, especially those situated by rails or rivers, will offer better opportunities for jobs and income, but that those places might become socio-culturally intolerable for all the reasons the author has outlined earlier in the book, as stress, paranoia, and societal breakdown exacerbate. The employment landscape of a Long Emergency world is almost certain to be one of many part-time, as opposed to full-time, jobs--a world of getting one's hands dirty, going into business making and selling necessary items, and drastic lifestyle changes.
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