You may say at this point, well that is just fine, but a huge McCain Margin in the South and West will make up enough of this to render the election close, or Obama will win a few of those states and take home the electoral college easily. I grant you that a large Obama landslide in the above states likely portends victory in a few red-leaning states. However, Obama's unique appeal may change the vote, but not quite enough to win any new states (besides the delightful and surprising Iowa).
In the last two elections, Democratic strength in the places mentioned above has been matched with large Republican victories in the South and West to draw the popular vote fairly even. This is where Obama can really change things. His appeal to African-American voters could make the South, especially North Carolina and Georgia, much closer. If McCain wins southern states by only a narrow margin, he won't eat far into Obama's huge lead in Democratic strongholds. Next comes Texas and the Southwest. A Latino uptick in voters combined with a big move toward Democrats, could make Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada very close. Obama may very well win New Mexico, but its small electoral count could not overcome a McCain win in Florida, Ohio and Minnesota or Wisconsin. A very close Texas and Colorado and a closer-than-expected Arizona would negate the significance of land-slides in the low-population inter-mountain states.
And that is what we could be left with. A huge Obama sweep of his traditional states and a very narrow McCain win in his, leaving a lop-sided popular victory in the electoral throws of close elections in Ohio, Florida and Minnesota or Wisconsin.
In some more detail, here is are the factors that could turn a sweep of the American people by Obama into a tight electoral selection of John McCain as President.
THEFT
We all know the breadth and depth of Republican attempts to obtain the Presidency through a false representation of the real vote in key states. If they put a fraction of the thought and resource they devote to various forms of voter repression and vote count manipulation, the Republicans might actually be able to run a government. But they don't. Here a number of places you can find discussions of the Republican efforts to once again claim the Presidency without regard to the vote.
A thorough dicussion of efforts and some news coverage of them can be found on Daily Kos; "13 Million Voters Purged -- and Counting!"
Mark Crispin Miller's account on Oped News of his appearance on Bill Moyer's Journal Friday night talks about Republicans using bogus claims of progressive voter fraud by groups such as ACORN to justify Republican legal strategies to repress votes of those likely to be progressive.
A long, exhaustive article in Rolling Stone by Greg Palast and Robert Kennedy, Jr., entitled "Block the Vote" sets out haunting and detailed accounts of Republican theft efforts, causing Palast to conclude "It's already stolen".
As this election is nearly as likely as the last two to come down to Ohio and Florida, "Another Round of Dirty Tricks in Ohio" by Bill Boyarsky on TruthDig is also instructive.
Lest you thing McCaain and the Repbulicans are not planning exactly this outcome, NBC News Director and elcction math whiz Chuck Todd just said on Meet the Press that John McCain had essentially conceded the popular vote and that if he has a path to the White House it has to be through the electoral vote.
DEMOCRATIC COMPLACENCY
This actually worries me the most. If Obama continues the substantial lead he has in the polls, the urgency of each individual vote appears to decrease. Urgency, for anyone accustomed to political organizing is one of the primary drivers of citizen political action. Huge numbers of people believe it is critical that we remove Republicans from power and we elect a President and executives and representatives at all levels who will work for the bulk of the people, not just for the already wealthy and powerful. We have extreme urgency on the issues and the state of the United States today.
This urgency is, in my view, one of the major drivers of Obama's popularity. But if actually getting to the polls begins to seem less urgent, other priorities or concerns might take over on election day. It may cease to feel as important to miss a few hours of work, especially in places where Republicans engage in efforts to slow down the voting process. it may reduce the burn purged voters would otherwise feel to fight the system to ensure their vote is counted. It might make a cup of hot chocolate on a chilly October night seem a lot better than braving the elements for a GOTB canvass or phone bank after a hard day at work, or on those precious weekend afternoons.
I understand that Obama fund raisers are concerned about this, despite his HUGE numbers in September.
A SURPRISE FROM THE CHRISTIAN RIGHT
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