The administration and its allies in the House have also tried to spin the IAEA report to the UN Security Council by claiming the agency had found weapons-grade uranium at Iran's pilot centrifuge facility. In fact, the IAEA found enriched uranium suitable for use only in nuclear power plants. The United States also alleged that a senior IAEA inspector had been removed because he was going to state his conclusion that Iran was building a nuclear weapon. In fact, the inspector was still working at the same IAEA job.
Not everyone has attributed these U.S. interpretations to mere miscues. Long-serving UN diplomats have drawn parallels between the abovementioned maneuvers and U.S. efforts before the 2003 Iraq War to discredit the work of the IAEA. Other observers and military analysts picked up this theme in late September when the Pentagon announced that the USS Eisenhower battle group was heading for the Persian Gulf region where it would replace the USS Enterprise battle group in late October or early November. With two carrier battle groups just off Iran's coast, tensions would be higher and the possibility of confrontation-either intentional or accidental-greater than usual and just before the U.S. elections.
The United States has reportedly been running Special Forces operations in Iran for well over a year, gathering information and identifying key targets for a combined naval and air attack that a number of analysts believe Bush intends to launch, and the sooner the better from his perspective. But with more than 20,000 troops in Afghanistan and 140,000 in Iraq, with those in Iraq virtually hostage to Iraq's Shi'ite Badr Brigades and Madhi army should the United States attack Shi'a Iran, and with additional ground forces potentially needed to maintain control of Baghdad or to reinforce NATO forces in Afghanistan, the White House can ill-afford to commit ground forces in a much larger and more populous Iran that would no more welcome the United States as a liberator than did the Iraqis.
The issues of oil and Iran are, of course, linked. Should the markets come to believe-before the November 2006 elections-that war is imminent, oil prices will again soar and further erode the support among the voting public for the administration's congressional allies. Conversely, if nothing causes alarm and sanctions continue to be nothing more than irritants, the Iranians conceivably could master the technical impediments and forge ahead with their nuclear program. The question is whether they would stop enrichment at levels suitable only for energy or press ahead to levels necessary for weapons.
Time Running Out?
As the elections approach, the administration's interpretation of Iran's activities deserves closer scrutiny. Iran is not so much defying the international community, as the administration alleges, but defying the U.S. interpretation of the international community's positions. Its development of nuclear energy can be monitored sufficiently to detect and significantly retard, if not prevent, development of a nuclear weapon in the short to medium time frame. More generally, negotiations are possible if the interests of each party are not summarily dismissed as illegitimate.
The question is: whose side is time on? In 5-15 years, Iran might well acquire a nuclear weapon and thereby change the region and the world. But 5-15 years provides ample time to talk, negotiate, and make a deal with Iran to renounce nuclear weapons. On this track, time is on the side of a peaceful outcome.
A U.S. attack on Iran in the next month or next two years, however, would guarantee fundamental and highly detrimental change in the region and the world. In the case of war, time is on no one's side.
In November, the voters will weigh in on the Bush administration's Middle East policy. They ideally will focus more on the war in Iraq and the potential war in Iran than on the price of gas at the pumps. There's still a chance for a new Middle East policy and a new relationship with Iran. There's still a chance that we can reassert our constitutional rights and restore democracy in Washington.
Col. Dan Smith is a military affairs analyst for Foreign Policy In Focus, a retired U.S. Army colonel, and a senior fellow on military affairs at the Friends Committee on National Legislation. Email at dan@fcnl.org
Not everyone has attributed these U.S. interpretations to mere miscues. Long-serving UN diplomats have drawn parallels between the abovementioned maneuvers and U.S. efforts before the 2003 Iraq War to discredit the work of the IAEA. Other observers and military analysts picked up this theme in late September when the Pentagon announced that the USS Eisenhower battle group was heading for the Persian Gulf region where it would replace the USS Enterprise battle group in late October or early November. With two carrier battle groups just off Iran's coast, tensions would be higher and the possibility of confrontation-either intentional or accidental-greater than usual and just before the U.S. elections.
The United States has reportedly been running Special Forces operations in Iran for well over a year, gathering information and identifying key targets for a combined naval and air attack that a number of analysts believe Bush intends to launch, and the sooner the better from his perspective. But with more than 20,000 troops in Afghanistan and 140,000 in Iraq, with those in Iraq virtually hostage to Iraq's Shi'ite Badr Brigades and Madhi army should the United States attack Shi'a Iran, and with additional ground forces potentially needed to maintain control of Baghdad or to reinforce NATO forces in Afghanistan, the White House can ill-afford to commit ground forces in a much larger and more populous Iran that would no more welcome the United States as a liberator than did the Iraqis.
The issues of oil and Iran are, of course, linked. Should the markets come to believe-before the November 2006 elections-that war is imminent, oil prices will again soar and further erode the support among the voting public for the administration's congressional allies. Conversely, if nothing causes alarm and sanctions continue to be nothing more than irritants, the Iranians conceivably could master the technical impediments and forge ahead with their nuclear program. The question is whether they would stop enrichment at levels suitable only for energy or press ahead to levels necessary for weapons.
As the elections approach, the administration's interpretation of Iran's activities deserves closer scrutiny. Iran is not so much defying the international community, as the administration alleges, but defying the U.S. interpretation of the international community's positions. Its development of nuclear energy can be monitored sufficiently to detect and significantly retard, if not prevent, development of a nuclear weapon in the short to medium time frame. More generally, negotiations are possible if the interests of each party are not summarily dismissed as illegitimate.
The question is: whose side is time on? In 5-15 years, Iran might well acquire a nuclear weapon and thereby change the region and the world. But 5-15 years provides ample time to talk, negotiate, and make a deal with Iran to renounce nuclear weapons. On this track, time is on the side of a peaceful outcome.
A U.S. attack on Iran in the next month or next two years, however, would guarantee fundamental and highly detrimental change in the region and the world. In the case of war, time is on no one's side.
In November, the voters will weigh in on the Bush administration's Middle East policy. They ideally will focus more on the war in Iraq and the potential war in Iran than on the price of gas at the pumps. There's still a chance for a new Middle East policy and a new relationship with Iran. There's still a chance that we can reassert our constitutional rights and restore democracy in Washington.
Col. Dan Smith is a military affairs analyst for Foreign Policy In Focus, a retired U.S. Army colonel, and a senior fellow on military affairs at the Friends Committee on National Legislation. Email at dan@fcnl.org
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