The situation at present can move in several directions. It could be that:
Musharraf is able to overcome the political challenges and gets away with the second coup. He takes one year or so to create a new pro-Musharraf political coalition to share power with by holding carefully regulated elections under the PCO. This is then followed by the restoration of the 1973 Constitution after amendments are introduced that condone Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution and all other steps taken under the emergency and permit Musharraf to continue as the army chief for an indefinite period;
The confrontation between the Musharraf government and the opposition gets out of hand and the military comes out openly to restore the authority of the government and imposes a stricter military rule;
The conflict between the government and the opposition intensifies leading to sustained street agitation that paralyses the government. Musharraf resigns himself or upon the advice of top army commanders who then facilitate Pakistan’s return to the 1973 Constitution; the Senate Chairman assumes the presidency followed by new general elections; or
The top army commanders assume an autonomous role and mediate the political conflict between major political leaders and the Musharraf government. This exercise will involve a secure exit for Musharraf and the unfolding of fair and free elections under an interim arrangement as set out in the 1973 Constitution.
Musharraf’s second coup reflects either his unwavering confidence in his government’s capacity to overcome civilian political resistance or, his desperation.
Most analysts are of the view that he wanted to pre-empt the possibility of an adverse judgment by the Supreme Court regarding the validity of his re-election. Further, the suspension of the 1973 Constitution has freed him from the obligation of vacating the office of the chief of army staff on November 15. Also, he can now hold general elections to his convenience because he is no longer bound by any deadline for holding elections. His latest statement that indicates his plans to hold elections by February 15 is dubious to say the least
The hopes for a negotiated settlement of the current political impasse are fast fading. If nothing is done quickly to bridge the gap between the government and the opposition, Pakistan will experience a long period of internal turmoil. This will neither serve the interests of the opposition nor Musharraf’s struggle for power.
The End
Musharraf is able to overcome the political challenges and gets away with the second coup. He takes one year or so to create a new pro-Musharraf political coalition to share power with by holding carefully regulated elections under the PCO. This is then followed by the restoration of the 1973 Constitution after amendments are introduced that condone Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution and all other steps taken under the emergency and permit Musharraf to continue as the army chief for an indefinite period;
The confrontation between the Musharraf government and the opposition gets out of hand and the military comes out openly to restore the authority of the government and imposes a stricter military rule;
The conflict between the government and the opposition intensifies leading to sustained street agitation that paralyses the government. Musharraf resigns himself or upon the advice of top army commanders who then facilitate Pakistan’s return to the 1973 Constitution; the Senate Chairman assumes the presidency followed by new general elections; or
Musharraf’s second coup reflects either his unwavering confidence in his government’s capacity to overcome civilian political resistance or, his desperation.
Most analysts are of the view that he wanted to pre-empt the possibility of an adverse judgment by the Supreme Court regarding the validity of his re-election. Further, the suspension of the 1973 Constitution has freed him from the obligation of vacating the office of the chief of army staff on November 15. Also, he can now hold general elections to his convenience because he is no longer bound by any deadline for holding elections. His latest statement that indicates his plans to hold elections by February 15 is dubious to say the least
The hopes for a negotiated settlement of the current political impasse are fast fading. If nothing is done quickly to bridge the gap between the government and the opposition, Pakistan will experience a long period of internal turmoil. This will neither serve the interests of the opposition nor Musharraf’s struggle for power.
The End
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