The "unfavorable external conditions" that al-Qaida protests include US presence in the Persian Gulf region, our support for dictators, and, of course, the existence of Israel. Supposedly, terrorists won't negotiate, but they don't believe traditional diplomacy will give them a fair shake. Suicide bombers are their ambassadors; a demolished marketplace their negotiating table.
Abrahms fails to acknowledge that the havoc al-Qaida wreaks is a pretty good consolation prize. Nor that it might be subject to "style drift," a financial term for fund managers who depart from the investment strategy they were initially bound by, such as income preservation, and switch to another, usually more aggressive.
In al-Qaida's case, its main goal may have drifted to killing Westerners, once secondary to its policy pursuits. In other words, blowback -– revenge to the nth degree –- may now, thanks in part to the likes of Robert Gates, be its raison d'etre.
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