As several African countries undergo military coups, it appears that Françafrique, France's sphere of influence over former French colonies in sub-Saharan Africa, may be coming to an end.
For years, France maintained the largest foreign military presence in Africa, maintaining a grip on the countries it was situated in and controlling the export market of local minerals.
But the military takeovers in Burkina Faso, Mali, and most recently Niger, at least partly triggered by an Islamist insurgency raging across the Sahel region, are likely to end Africa's longstanding presence in Africa.
In the past three years, eight former French colonies located in West and Central Africa experienced coups that have resulted in military leaderships taking control. Each of these political transitions has been accompanied by a strong surge of anti-France sentiment. Many believe this sentiment stems from perceived meddling and interference by France.
Now, as these vast regions of Africa teeter on the brink of conflict, France once more finds itself at the epicenter of the turbulence. The escalating tension is most palpable in Niger, a former French colony. Here, a democratically elected administration under the leadership of President Mohamed Bazoum - who has robust support from both Paris and other Western powers - was ousted by a military junta in late July.
Neighboring countries, members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), have voiced threats of launching an offensive against the Nigerian military coup leaders, notably General Abdourahamane Tchiani. Given the circumstance, there's potential for French backing should such a military intervention materialize. This is especially true considering the ongoing French military presence in Niger, evidenced by their 1,500-strong troop garrison and well-established airbase.
However, France has so far remained cautious, maintaining a watchful stance and not rushing into any precipitate action. It is likely that it is this French hesitation and non-involvement that encouraged the coup leaders in Gabon to move forward with their plans without fear of retribution.
Naturally, as Africa wrenches free from France, other major powers are seeking to move in and fill the power vacuum. The African continent has clearly emerged as a focal point for significant geopolitical attention in light of the ongoing global realignment. There are at least four primary reasons that underscore its importance on the world stage.
To begin with, Africa holds a substantial position within the United Nations. It constitutes the most expansive regional bloc, commanding approximately 28% of all votes within the General Assembly. This provides the continent with significant influence in shaping global resolutions and directives.
Secondly, Africa holds many of the world's most essential raw minerals, many of which are exclusive to the continent. The possession of these unique mineral resources amplifies its strategic importance in global commerce and industry.
The third point of significance lies in the continent's strategic maritime routes, particularly those situated in East Africa. These routes play a pivotal role in facilitating global sea trade, making their significance undeniable in the larger spectrum of world economics.
Lastly, Africa is witnessing an unparalleled demographic evolution. It is projected that by the year 2030, the continent will be home to approximately 42% of the world's youth population. Such a large and growing youth demographic can have profound implications for global labor markets, innovation, and geopolitical strategies in the years to come.
For these reasons and more, China and Russia are increasingly gravitating towards Eritrea, a modestly-sized African nation strategically poised in the Horn of Africa, offering easy access to the Red Sea. Notably, Eritrea's location provides a pivotal advantage in the context of global geopolitics. This increased attention from superpowers Beijing and Moscow comes as Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki faces isolation from Western nations due to concerns over his autocratic style of governance and alleged abuse of human rights.
Observers note that Afwerki's diplomatic maneuverings have succeeded in drawing his nation closer to these major powers, paving the way for financial backing for numerous developmental projects and investments. This relationship was further cemented in 2021 when Eritrea joined China's Belt and Road Initiative. This ambitious, multibillion-dollar program by Beijing has been a game-changer across the African continent, facilitating the construction of large-scale infrastructure projects. These have spanned ports, highways, energy-generating dams, railways, and roads, further integrating Africa into China's expanding global network.
In addition, over the past decade, Chinese firms have been on a shopping spree in Eritrea, scooping up major stakes in all four of the country's advanced mining ventures, previously owned by Australian and Canadian businesses. Some of these mines contain world-class mineral deposits. Just in the past five years, Zijin Mining Group snapped up Nevsun Resources' copper and zinc mine from Canada, and Sichuan Road and Bridge Group sealed the deal on Danakali's potash project from Australia.
Russia, as well, has made inroads in Africa. Since the onset of the Ukraine war, Russian officials have increased diplomatic visits to Africa and Latin America to enhance Russia's global standing. In 2023, they visited numerous African countries and Latin American nations, including Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba, with the aim of garnering support for Russia's war in Ukraine. Observers believe Russia is strategically bolstering its global influence, using economic ties, politics, and digital disinformation. This shift in strategy from mere economic "opportunism" in the 2010s has led to increased Russian influence in places like South Africa, which seems to be leaning more towards China and Russia than the West.
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