Even optimists are
starting to have second thoughts about the Arab Spring, which is quickly
turning into blood showers. The numbers of dead and injured are astounding and
the prize so far is confined to three bad possibilities. An extension of a
dictatorial corrupt regime such as the case in Egypt, the election of an
Islamist party that the west don't understand nor trust, as the case is in
Tunisia, or an endless insane killing as the case seem to be in Syria, Libya,
and Yemen. This bleak picture is unfortunately true.
Consecutive American
administrations based its policy in the Arab World, on the need for stable
regimes that can maintain the critical oil supply, while ensuring the safety of
Israel. The American partner in this policy has been corrupted and autocratic
regimes that controlled their countries with iron fests.
The premise of stability
was shattered on September 11. However, instead of reassessing our policies and
trying to understand the cause and effect we started endless debate about an
imaginary clash of civilization. None of our think tanks stopped to argue that
in the age of the internet there is only one civilization with different levels
of restrictions imposed on its inhabitants.
This year, our
politicians were shocked, as usual, to discover that the people of the Arab
World, wearing headscarf or jeans and sometimes both, demanded freedom and were
willing to die for democracy. The so-called Arab Spring surprised the world and
specially America.
In the case of Egypt,
after a few days of confusion, the American government supported at least publicly
handing Mubarak's power to the second in command, a junta of Egyptian generals.
In Libya, our government participated in the physical removal of Gaddafi. In
Bahrain, Yemen, and Syria Obama's administration shut in different degrees
their eyes on the ongoing brutality.
Ten month after the
initial spark, demonstrations are igniting once again in Tahreer square. The
Syrian revolution that started peaceful is sliding slowly into an armed
conflict, and Yemen is disintegrating. The Arab revolutions are moving to a
next phase that is impossible to defined, but will clearly reshape the region
and impact American interests for years to come.
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