A recent study published in The Lancet medical journal has shed new light on the devastating toll of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, suggesting that the actual number of casualties may be significantly higher than previously reported. The peer-reviewed research, conducted by a team led by experts from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Yale University, estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the conflict was approximately 40% higher than the figures recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.
This is a staggering statistic given the ongoing scale of death and destruction.
The study, which analyzed data from October 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024, employed a statistical method known as capture-recapture analysis to evaluate the number of casualties resulting from Israel's military operations in Gaza. The researchers utilized multiple sources of information, including data from the Gaza Health Ministry, online surveys, and social media obituaries, to arrive at their estimates.
According to the study's findings, while the Gaza Health Ministry reported 37,877 deaths during this period, the researchers estimate that the actual number of deaths from traumatic injuries ranged between 55,298 and 78,525. The study's best estimate puts the death toll at 64,260, suggesting that the health ministry's figures were grossly underreported by approximately 41%[1][2].
This estimated death toll represents a staggering 2.9% of Gaza's pre-war population, or approximately one in every 35 inhabitants[1]. The researchers noted that 59% of the deceased were women, children, and elderly individuals aged 65 and above[5]. This demographic breakdown highlights the disproportionate impact of the conflict on Gaza's vulnerable populations.
It's important to note that the study's estimates only account for deaths resulting from traumatic injuries. The researchers emphasize that these figures do not include fatalities due to lack of healthcare, food shortages, or the thousands of people presumed to be trapped under rubble[1]. This suggests that the total human cost of the conflict may be even significantly higher than the study's estimates.
The discrepancy between the official figures and the study's estimates can be attributed to several factors. Zeina Jamaluddine, the lead author of the study, explained that while the Palestinian Health Ministry initially maintained comprehensive electronic records of deaths, these systems have significantly deteriorated amid Israel's prolonged 15-month offensive[3]. The conflict has severely damaged Gaza's healthcare infrastructure, making it increasingly difficult for authorities to maintain accurate records.
The study's findings have important implications for understanding the scale of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. As of January 10, 2025, the Gaza Health Ministry reported that the total death count over the entire 15-month conflict had reached 46,006[4]. However, if the trend of underreporting identified in the study has continued, the actual number of fatalities could be much higher. The researchers suggest that the total number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza could exceed 70,000 if the pattern of underreporting persisted from July to October 2024[3].
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