Black swan is the name of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's best-selling book (millions sold) and it could be used to describe Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upset defeat of incumbent Democrat Joe Crowley.
Taleb characterizes a black swan event as having three characteristics:
For at least 1400 years black swans were believed not to exist. The term "black swan" was used to describe something non-existent. Then, a whole lot of them were discovered in Australia.
- The event is a surprise (to the observer).
- The event has a major effect.
- After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb's hugely successful book argues that black swan events often play major roles in history, citing 9/11 and the invention of the internet as examples.
I believe it is reasonable to characterize Ocasio-Cortez's win as a black swan event. That means that it could play a major role in history. It could open the sluice gates to Berniecrat victories and defeats of old-school Clinton DLC corporatist Democrats.
Over the coming days, the Pelosi-led powers that be will surely do as Taleb describes, and rationalize this beautiful black swan event, just as early critics of the computer said it could only be of interest to a handful of businesses.
Ocasio-Cortez, through her victory has opened a door that could see throngs of victorious progressive candidates swell through. Let's hope it happens soon enough, before the current Democratic leaders destroy the opportunity for victory that Donald Trump and his GOP sycophants have served up on a plate.
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