The 2024 United States presidential election is about ten months away and anything, and I mean ANYTHING, can happen. Especially when the most likely scenario is a rematch between two old white men - one an octogenarian - and the other, 77 years old, and in an obvious state of cognitive decline manifested by the fact that he's found it difficult to remember who he's running against, and other very simple, recent happenings. Not that the sitting United States president, Joe Biden, is a shining example of cognitive brilliance. He routinely mumbles his words in public and seems lost at other times. And while the polling industry is now the addictive go-to toy of the mainstream media and political pundits it's not that they always get it wrong.
For example, recent polling results show the Republican frontrunner, former president Donald Trump, beating Biden in a match up (if the election was to be held in February) and holding a lead of nearly 10 points. But this is February - not November. Moreover, Donald Trump is banking on his ability to delay the myriad legal problems that he faces even as his MAGA base still fanatically supports him - for the time being .
However, there is a significant - over 40 percent - segment of the overall Republican electorate that does not support the rambunctious, deeply flawed and chronic loser of a former president who has an adversarial relationship with the truth. The MAGA base, made up of largely older white Americans, is a fickle, ignorant ilk that is angry and scared of the changing demographics in America, and nostalgically yearn for the era of the 1950s when Black, Brown and Asian people "knew their places." Equally problematic for the Republican Party and Donald Trump is the herculean challenge in wooing enough independent and women voters to his column to form a broad-based winning coalition.
For Joe Biden the existential threat to his winning a second term is the steady stream of voters expressing angry dissatisfaction with the POTUS's "blinkers on" obscenely loud jingoistic support for Israel's genocidal pogrom in Gaza. To date, its either the United States and President Biden are unable to stop the daily mass slaughter that is now approaching 30,000 dead, including nearly 10,000 children and women, or he does not want or care to stop the killing. Both are morally reprehensible. Either way Joe Biden now owns the Genocide in Gaza and is enjoined and indicted by the ruling of the International Court of Justice that has ruled positively on South Africa's complaint that there is, what the legal people call, a prima facie case of unfolding genocide in Gaza, and that Israel is directly responsible.
And if ever there was any doubt that the U.S. president now dubbed "Genocide Joe" (How many children did you kill today?) is doing Israel's bidding and appears blinded to facts and global protests calling for a ceasefire, is that the United States was the FIRST western nation to suspend aid to the UN agency providing humanitarian aid to desperate Gazans ONE DAY after the ICJ ruling and Israel ALLEGING - not offering proof - that seven or 12 workers at this agency with a staff of over 30,000 were suspected Hamas sympathizers.
The U.S. and its allies and eager water-bearers for Israel rushed to suspend aid even BEFORE an official inquiry and after the UN IMMEDIATELY fired the workers and opened an investigation into the allegations. The suspicious thing is that the UN has always sent its staff list to Israel for vetting and background checks and until the ICJ ruling Israel NEVER complained or accused the agency of wrongdoing. Distraction and political deflection 101.
Today, young Black, white, Jewish. Muslim and Latino voters that traditionally vote Democratic are having second thoughts about this presidential election. That's great news for Donald Trump even though the Republican Party's election machine, the Republican National Committee (RNC) is cash-strapped and nearly broke with the lowest levels of fundraising cash on hand since the early 1970, while the DNC is flush with cash, and raking in even more. Perhaps this is reassuring to Joe Biden because right now Democrats are on track to outspend Republicans in a big way especially in battle ground "must win" states. But, gobs of cash are not all and mass Democratic voter dissatisfaction, disillusionment, and Biden's difficulty to inspire, mobilize and energize the party's base is another serious issue. The existential threat for him is if a large enough segment of the party's base angry and frustrated at being ignores decides to stay home - that's essentially voting for Donald Trump.
Or young Democrats and others in the base will hold their noses and vote for Biden - the real or perceived lesser of two evils - to prevent another even catastrophic Donald Trump 2.0. This is a the very sad state of American democracy in 2024 when the political choices are limited to two old, deeply flawed white men that have the backing of their respective political parties both out of touch with reality. It's no wonder that over 40 percent of voting age Americans never do. The corporate duopoly has successfully rigged the electoral system in their own interests and benefits; they have made it so that the chance of picking a presidential candidate not acceptable to both party's elite grandees is impossible. Just Senator Bernie Sanders.
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