Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a decree mandating the expansion of the country's military forces to 1.5 million active-duty personnel, which will bring the total number of military staff, including support and reserves, to approximately 2.4 million. The decree, dated Monday, stipulates that the expansion will take effect on December 1 and will increase the number of active troops by 180,000. This marks the third major augmentation of Russia's military strength since the start of the conflict with Ukraine in early 2022.
Putin's previous military expansions reflect the ongoing strain of the war effort. In August 2022, he ordered a 137,000-troop increase, pushing the total number of active soldiers to 1.15 million by early 2023. Just a year later, in December 2023, another expansion of 170,000 troops was mandated, bringing the total active-duty force to 1.32 million.
The current move to bolster Russia's military comes amid heightened hostilities with Ukraine, which have escalated since Kyiv launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk region in early August. Ukrainian forces reportedly seized several miles of territory and captured hundreds of Russian soldiers during the offensive. In response, Russia has vowed to reclaim the area and intensify its counteroffensive operations.
This escalation in the conflict is putting new pressure on international stakeholders, particularly the United States. The Biden administration, which has long adhered to a policy restricting Ukraine from using Western-supplied weapons for strikes deep inside Russian territory, is reportedly considering a significant shift. Recent reports suggest that President Biden may approve the transfer of long-range missiles to Ukraine, enabling them to target sites far within Russia's borders.
Such a change would mark a dramatic escalation in Western involvement in the conflict, a move that Putin has warned would be viewed as a direct provocation from NATO. The Russian leader has repeatedly cautioned that further Western military assistance to Ukraine, particularly the provision of long-range strike capabilities, risks deepening the conflict and could prompt severe retaliatory measures from Moscow.
Another reason Putin is expanding the military is because Russia's casualty numbers remain shrouded in secrecy. In September 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said 5,937 troops had been killed in the war. The ministry has not published an update since.
Ukrainian and Western intelligence assessments put the toll much higher. In an update published this month, the General Staff of Ukraine's military said Russia has lost 616,300 troops. The United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense also estimates that Russia has suffered more than 610,000 casualties.
"Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day throughout September 2024 as Russia continues operations on a wide front from Kursk in the north to Robotyne in the south," it said.
If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine were to expand, with Russia launching attacks against NATO countries to the west, it would trigger a highly dangerous and unpredictable escalation in global security. Several key developments could unfold:
The most immediate and significant consequence of a Russian attack on a NATO member would be the invocation of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Article 5 is the cornerstone of NATO's collective defense doctrine, stating that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. This would compel NATO to respond militarily, likely leading to a coordinated counteroffensive involving not just the attacked country but the entire alliance, including the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, and other major military powers.
NATO would likely mobilize its full military resources in response. This could involve deploying advanced air, sea, and ground forces to confront Russian aggression. The U.S., in particular, might deploy additional troops to Europe, activate missile defense systems, and send strategic bombers or aircraft carriers to the region. NATO air superiority, precision-guided weapons, and modernized land forces would likely be used to contain and repel any Russian advance.
An attack on NATO countries in Eastern Europe, such as Poland, the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), or Romania, would lead to the rapid spread of hostilities across the region. These countries, which share borders with Russia or its ally Belarus, are considered particularly vulnerable. Russian forces could target critical military installations, infrastructure, and supply lines, while NATO forces would aim to neutralize Russian positions, likely escalating to intense battles across the region.
Beyond military engagements, a broader conflict would almost certainly devastate the global economy. Sanctions against Russia would intensify, but Russia could retaliate with further disruption to global energy supplies, particularly natural gas and oil exports, causing severe economic shocks across Europe and beyond.
In parallel, Russia might escalate cyberattacks against NATO countries, targeting critical infrastructure like power grids, financial systems, and communication networks. NATO, possessing significant cyber capabilities, would likely respond in kind, potentially crippling Russia's digital infrastructure.
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