Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Israel commands the world's attention now, as it issues threats about a planned attack on Iran in retaliation of an Iranian attack of Israel, which was a retaliation to the Israeli assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and others.
The tit-for-tat strikes now run the risk of Israel hitting Iranian nuclear and oil facilities.
Should that happen, would Iran strike back and hit the Israeli nuclear arsenal at Dimona? Would Iran shut the strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting off 25% of the world's tanker-shipped crude oil? With China buying 90% of the Iranian crude oil, would an attack bring China into a world war with Israel and the US?
Oil prices spiked recently after US President Joe Biden said he was discussing the possible Israeli attack on Iran's oil industry. Analysts fear the price of a barrel of oil could hit $300 if Israel, backed by the US militarily, were to strike. Europeans and Americans would feel the effect of a conflict in West Asia in which diplomacy and compromise were thrown out the window by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the past year.
Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse interviewed Suat Delgen, a former Turkish naval officer who focuses on the defense industry and foreign policy issues. He has extensive knowledge of naval warfare systems, NATO, EU security and defense policy, maritime security, new technologies, and Western Asia.
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): According to the Wall Street Journal, the Iranian missiles launched against Israel were not all prevented from hitting their targets, despite Israel having spent billions of dollars of the American tax-payer's money on air defense systems. In your opinion, does this prove the Iron Dome's failure?
Suat Delgen (SD): Israel has a layered air defense system. In the layered air defense system low, medium, high altitude air defense systems and ballistic missile defense systems are used together. Israel's multi-layered air defense system consists of four components; Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow-2, Arrow 3.
David's Sling, Arrow-2, Arrow 3 missiles are used in defense against ballistic missiles. However, considering that Iran attacked with about 200 ballistic missiles in the last attack, it is an expected result that the counter-engagement capability of the defense systems reached saturation and some ballistic missiles could not be shot down. Therefore, it cannot be said that the Israeli air defense system is a complete failure, but rather that it is sometimes saturated and inadequate against large-scale missile attacks. I believe that Israel will make some improvements and updates to its layered air defense missile system, especially after the recent attack, in order to increase the effectiveness of its defense against hypersonic missiles.
2. SS: According to media reports, Russia has sent a new version of the S-400 to help Iran defend against Israel. In your opinion, if Israel strikes Iran, who will win this war, the F-35 or the S-400?
SD: The S-400 air defense system was not very effective against Sculp and Strom Shadow cruise missiles in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In particular, the S-400 air defense system could not provide an effective defense against the headquarters building of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. For this reason, I do not consider the S-400 to be an effective air defense system against the F-35. However, one point should be emphasized here. In the event of a possible Iranian attack, the downing of an F-35 aircraft by the S-400 would give Russia a very serious psychological advantage and prestige. For this reason, I believe that Russia will covertly support Iran against the F-35 fighter jets not only with S-400s, but also with other electronic warfare systems.
3. SS: Satellite images have shown significant destruction in several Israeli military bases from of the Iranian missiles attack. In your view, was the Iranian attack successful?
SD: The success of a military operation is not measured by the damage it causes. The success of a military operation is measured by the achievement of the political and military goals set during the planning stage. Iran's goal was not to inflict great damage on Israel. Iran wanted to show Israel that it had the means and capability to inflict damage on itself, if it so chose. Second, Iran had to respond to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. This response should not be so harsh as to draw Iran into an all-out war, but it should be effective enough to show that it can hurt Israel. In this respect, I believe that Iran has achieved its goal.
4. SS: Israel carried out several assassinations against Hezbollah members, and was behind the attack on pagers and walkie-talkies. In your point of view, what caused this security weakness in Hezbollah?
SD: The Iranian attacks against Hezbollah members and Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon show that Israeli intelligence has a lot of influence within Hezbollah. I think this has led to insecurity within Hezbollah. Without addressing the security weaknesses within Hezbollah, Hezbollah will not be able to make very effective decisions.
5. SS: Hezbollah has lost a number of military leaders because of the Israeli airstrikes. In your opinion, how much does this weaken Hezbollah?
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