Scrambling to end the war in Ukraine, President Trump finds himself on one side trying to get the Russians (i.e. Vladimir Putin) to agree to a ceasefire, and Zelensky just hovering around somewhere - a man who can not figure out for certain how many y's to put after his name can hardly be expected to develop a peace plan appealing to all the sides -- Ukrainians, ethnic Russians in Ukraine, and Russians across the border who have seen Ukraine as always part of Russia, or part of the Soviet Union, and then part of Russia again. That is until Gorbachev went on a freedom binge, his glasnost and perestroika (transparency and reform), which began the rupture of the Soviet Union.
The Ukrainian offer originally was for a stop to hostilities in the air and at sea, which would not be difficult to monitor. But the U.S. wants it to include the frontline in the eastern part of Ukraine. It extends 1200 km (750 miles) and would require significant manpower to monitor. Given the irregular forces on the Ukrainian side, it was not hard to predict the Russian response. Putin rejected it.
The talks are being held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and the two sides are not directly talking to each other. They convey their thoughts to the U.S. acting as intermediary, which then passes them on to the opposing side.
Under U.S. vigilance and with the added threat of economic sanctions, the two sides could be pushed into an agreement not to their liking. One can then anticipate its short lifespan.
As Zelensky has said (and it makes sense): "You need to talk in a very simple way: What do you want? What are your conditions? And I'd tell them, 'Here are our points.' We would agree somewhere in the middle." Some compromise on both sides to reach an agreement both sides can live with.
A peace agreement rammed down anyone's throat is innately going to be of short duration. In the case of Vietnam, the North accepted the result of the Paris talks and waited till the U.S. forces left. They then simply marched down to the south and took over. The country was reinvented and in time as the world changed, including its Chinese neighbor and long-time supporter, as did Vietnam. The U.S. is now the latter's largest export market with China a distant second.
Sometimes one has to look to nature for the answer. She is a dispassionate mistress devoid of any sympathy for the underdog or pride in any victor. Where does that leave us if not in a resumption of killing?
Zelensky should beware. A quick look at history would be warning enough. Il Duce, the idol of the masses in Italy, was killed together with his mistress at the end of WW2 and no one shed a tear. The prize goes to the victor and the public holds losers in contempt.
A compromise to achieve peace is all Zelensky can expect and that would be a lucky ending. That is if the public votes for him in an election as his term of office has already expired.
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