Donald Trump won the American presidency in 2016. But can he win again in 2024? The future seemed sweet for him following President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance in June of 2024. He was basking in the (false) perceptions of a declining economy, raising huge amounts of money, and leading comfortably in most polls -- especially in the "swing" states. But the tide changed once Vice-President Kamala Harris became the substitute candidate for an increasingly frail President Biden. Losing the support of major party leaders, such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and ex-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca), he faced a split within his party over American policy in the Israel-Hamas conflict. He also watched as polls dipped downward and, surely, he feared that Trump would win the election.
President Biden withdrew from the race, and an incredible eruption of relief and enthusiasm greeted the new ticket of Kamala Harris and her vice-presidential pick, the earthy Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz. Avoiding a primary fight at the Convention, she immediately became the recipient of $500 million in donations (on top of the $500 million already raised by President Biden). Her background as an African-American and South Asian woman made her an inspiration for minorities, young people, and women. What's more, she was primed to present herself as the heir of a legislative record whose remarkable character was never properly conveyed to the American people by President Biden.
Vice-President Harris instantly disoriented Trump's political machine, and it remains unable to decide on the appropriate strategy against her. Trump's choice of the bumbling Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his vice-presidential candidate, combined with bizarre personal and racist attacks on Harris, have thrown the Republicans on the defensive. Ms. Harris' personal approval ratings have soared and, what was once a dead-even race, has turned into a 5-8% lead nationally with similar numbers among "independent" voters; "red" states are becoming competitive and swing states are leaning "blue." The numbers reflect the "bounce" she received following a beautifully scripted Democratic Convention.
However, the popular vote has never been the issue: Trump lost it to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by nearly three million votes, and to Biden in 2020 by just under five million votes. The swing states will prove decisive and there it is too close to call. Complicating the matter further are third-party candidates who stand to garner anywhere from 3% to 7% of the vote. The best known among them, Robert Kennedy Jr., was ready to support Harris in exchange for a cabinet post, but she turned down the deal, leading him to endorse Trump, who was less picky. This might prove more significant than it initially seems: Kennedy might provide the ex-president with another 2% of the vote while the other less-known left-wing candidates, Jill Stein of the Green Party and Cornel West, could draw another 1-2% away from Harris. In states like Wisconsin and Michigan, these third-party candidates might make the difference. Harris enthusiasts should not be deceived by the establishment and liberal media. The vice-president is still on her "honeymoon" with the American public; it is common knowledge that the real campaign only begins in September after the "Labor Day" holiday.
Harris and Trump will hold a debate on September 10, 2024, and much is expected from her as against the demagogue who is still carrying heavy baggage from the past. "The Washington Post" reported that Trump was caught lying over 30,000 times while in office - and the numbers have only grown since then. He recently lost a civil case charging him with sexual molestation and libel, and an adult film actress won a judgment against him. Trump was impeached twice and he has been convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records and tax fraud in New York. He was Indicted for allegedly violating the Espionage Act by illegally seizing 11,000 documents upon leaving office in 2021, 100 of which were highly classified. State trials also await in Georgia and Washington DC regarding his attempts to rig the 2020 elections and hinder the peaceful transfer of power through his role in the insurrection of January 6th 2021.
Trump's understanding of politics has always been "transactional", and he has promised pardons for convicted participants in the uprising should he again become president. Courts have also been kind to him - or better the justices that he appointed have been kind to him. The Supreme Court granted the ex-president "immunity" for all criminal acts performed while fulfilling his duties, which has delayed all his remaining legal battles. Should he re-take the presidency, indeed, he will undoubtedly demand that his hand-picked officials at the Department of Justice suspend all prosecutions against him.
Trump has been publicly branded a pathological liar, a sexual abuser, a grifter, a gangster, and even a traitor. The public has been constantly reminded of his support for xenophobic white nationalism. He has called military veterans "suckers and losers", disparaged science, and dismissed environmentalism. Trump's foreign policy turned the United States into a global laughing-stock, undermined traditional alliances, and put America at risk by embracing authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jung-un. The astounding corruption of his former administration benefited his family's business interests to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. His measures to deregulate markets had a catastrophic impact on everyday citizens and his tax-cuts, which favored the top .01%, increased the federal budget deficit, and resulted in the greatest upward shift of wealth in American history.
Every voter should read a summary of the 1000-page blatantly neo-fascist agenda for a new Trump administration, "Project 2025", sponsored by the reactionary Heritage Foundation and concocted by the ex-president's cronies. Should Trump win in 2024, the document states, he will purge the civil service of 50,000 "rogue bureaucrats". He will also "weaponize" the intelligence agencies, the Federal Reserve, and the Internal Revenue Service by essentially placing them under presidential control. Furthermore, the Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency will be abolished, and the Department of Health and Human Services will be cut to the bone.
Healthcare will become the responsibility of individual states and the national health-care system, "Obamacare" is in danger of being eliminated entirely. Social Security will suffer a drastic rollback and the cost of prescription drugs will rise. Meanwhile, gun rights will be protected and the military will not only patrol America's Southern border with Mexico, but provide law and order in dangerous neighborhoods, and quell demonstrations that do not meet the president's approval. His dictatorial ambitions may not reach fruition, but they should be taken seriously.
Trump views himself as "the world spirit on a white horse", which was how Hegel described Napoleon. The ex-president has insisted that his global stature will enable him to end the war between Russia and Ukraine "in a day" -- though naturally, he refuses to say how. Trump has also threatened to place huge tariffs on Chinese imports, prepare for war with the Asian hegemon, withdraw from NATO, defund the UN, and renounce other international commitments. He has again threatened to close America's Southern border, complete his projected wall, and deport 15-20 million immigrants. Such talk is probably red meat thrown to his followers. Nevertheless, it sheds light on the tenor of his agenda.
Trump is showing his age in meandering, often incoherent, and racist speeches. He incessantly insulted Biden, who is 80 years old, for his supposed enfeeblement, which led to his withdrawal from the race. At 59 years old, however, Harris turned the tables on Trump, who is 78 years old. She seized hold of the age-issue and, always fickle, the media shifted its publicity allegiance. Prior to the Harris candidacy, it was Trump all day every day, whereas now the spotlight is on Harris.
How long that will last is an open question. Trump's standing remains rock-solid among his base, namely, the least educated voters, non-urban constituencies, anachronistic sectors of the industrial working class, Evangelicals, older white men, and even white women-- though the overturning of Roe v. Wade by "Trump's Supreme Court" may change that. The ex-president rules the Republican Party with an iron fist, he has no meaningful rivals, and "moderate" Republicans have fallen into line behind him. These opportunists greased the wheels for Trump's victory in 2016 and they implacably opposing the Democrats on every issue and at every turn. These "moderate" conservatives were cowards, pure and simple. They feared the political repercussions of questioning their leader even when it came to his support for the insurrection, white nationalism, and his false claim that the 2020 election was "stolen" from him.
Few people seriously believe that Kamala Harris is a pathological liar, "stupid," a grifter, or a traitor. The Vice-President will run on Biden's remarkable record as president. He defended American democracy in the face of a possible coup. His administration was more diverse and scandal-free than any in the history of America. Biden reinvigorated NATO in defense of Ukraine, stood up to China on the fate of Taiwan, and rejected the temptations of isolationism. Moreover, the president pushed through legislation to rebuild a collapsing infrastructure, reduce carbon emissions, protect civil liberties and voting rights, and defend the welfare state. Harris faces the difficult task of presenting herself as an architect of Biden's programs and, simultaneously, as an independent political actor in her own right.
The vice-president is not identified with any significant issue other than immigration, where she did not distinguish herself, and abortion rights. This has led Trump to lambast her as an "affirmative action hire." So far, that hasn't worked. Articulate, elegant, sophisticated, and youthful, poised, and intelligent, Harris's bearing has made such attacks seem absurd. But that can change. FOX News is no novice when it comes to using racism and sexism against perceived enemies and Harris is already being vilified as the most "communist, Marxist, liberal" candidate ever.
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